Tom's MNF Late Night Total

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Winnipeg Jets -1.5 (+170)

NHL Game Analysis: Winnipeg Jets vs. Calgary Flames

Team Performance Overview

The Winnipeg Jets, with an impressive 4-1-0 record, have been a dominant force early in the season, losing only their opening game. In contrast, the Calgary Flames started with a win but have since faltered, dropping five consecutive games (1-5-0). The Jets are riding a four game winning streak, showcasing their offensive prowess and goaltending stability, while the Flames have struggled to find consistency, particularly at home.

Offensive and Defensive Trends

Winnipeg's offense is firing on all cylinders, averaging 4.2 goals per game (GPG) overall, with an even more potent 5.0 GPG on the road. Their ability to generate high shot volumes is likely to exploit Calgary's defensive vulnerabilities. The Flames, meanwhile, have struggled offensively, failing to generate consistent scoring chances, and their defense has been porous, especially at home where they've lost both games this season.

Goaltending Matchup

In net, Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck has been a reliable backbone, providing stability and clutch saves. Calgary's Dustin Wolf, however, has faced challenges, struggling to keep games close. The Jets high powered offense is expected to test Wolf early and often, likely overwhelming Calgary's goaltending with a barrage of shots.

Head to Head History

Recent matchups favor Winnipeg, with their last three wins against Calgary all by multiple goals. This trend underscores the Jets dominance in this matchup and their ability to capitalize on the Flames weaknesses.

Prediction

Given Winnipeg's offensive firepower, strong road performance, and superior goaltending, they are well positioned to extend their winning streak against a struggling Calgary squad. The Jets should control the game with sustained offensive pressure and are likely to secure a convincing victory. Backing Winnipeg on the puck line (PL) is a confident play based on their current form and historical edge over the Flames.

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The PLAY: Atlanta Falcons +1.5 (+100)

Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers: Game Preview and Analysis

Game Details

Date: Sunday, October 19, 2025

Time: 8:20 PM EDT

Broadcast: NBC (Sunday Night Football)

Venue: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

Team Records

Atlanta Falcons

Straight Up (SU): 3-2

Against the Spread (ATS): 3-2

ATS Road: 1-1

San Francisco 49ers

Straight Up (SU): 4-2

Against the Spread (ATS): 3-3

ATS Home: 0-2

Team Analysis

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers return home after a two game road trip, where they competed closely in Tampa Bay but ultimately fell short. The team may see a boost with key players potentially returning from injury, including wide receivers Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall. If Pearsall plays, his player props could offer value due to a favorable matchup against Atlanta’s secondary.

However, quarterback Brock Purdy is not expected to play, leaving Mac Jones to lead the offense. Despite the quarterback uncertainty, San Francisco’s passing attack remains one of the league’s stronger units, bolstered by Christian McCaffrey’s dynamic presence in the backfield. Tight end Jake Tonges has emerged as a red zone target and could be a sneaky play for an anytime touchdown (ATTD) prop.

At home, the 49ers have struggled against the spread (0-2 ATS), which raises concerns about their ability to cover as favorites.

Atlanta Falcons

Coming off an impressive Monday Night Football win against the Buffalo Bills, the Falcons are riding high and don’t appear to be in a letdown spot. Their offense has shown recent improvement, scoring 34 and 24 points in their last two games overall. However, their road offense has been inconsistent, averaging just 11 points per game and posting a shutout in their last road game against Carolina.

Atlanta’s game plan will likely center on running back Bijan Robinson to control the ground game, but their passing attack could find success against a 49ers defense that has shown vulnerabilities. The Falcons’ defense has also been a pleasant surprise, and their recent offensive output suggests they may have found a rhythm.

The betting line has been moving in Atlanta’s favor, reflecting growing confidence in their ability to compete in this matchup.

Key Matchup Insights

Both teams rank as average on offense and defense, setting the stage for a competitive game.

San Francisco’s passing offense remains a strength, even with a backup quarterback Mac Jones, while Atlanta’s improving defense could challenge them.

Atlanta’s run heavy approach with Bijan Robinson should keep the 49ers’ defense honest, potentially opening up opportunities in the passing game.

Player prop considerations:

Ricky Pearsall (if active): Look for receiving yards or receptions props due to a favorable matchup.

Jake Tonges: A potential value pick for an anytime touchdown, given his recent red zone involvement.

Betting Recommendation

The Falcons’ recent offensive surge and improving defense make them an attractive underdog in this spot. Their ability to exploit San Francisco’s home ATS struggles and the uncertainty at quarterback for the 49ers tilts the value in their favor.

Pick: Falcons +2.5, Moneyline +114

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