4% DIV. TOTAL OF MONTH: #1 NBA TOTALS

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Total Over 5.5 (-120)

This is a FREE PLAY on the Panthers/Bruins OVER.

As primarily a situational capper, I love the way this Atlantic Division battle between the Florida Panthers and the Boston Bruins sets up to be more of a high-scoring shootout, rather than grind-it-out defensive battle for a few different key situational reasons.

Florida enters 3-4, while Boston is 3-4 as well.

The Panthers are 0-4 on the road, while the Bruins are 2-1 at home.

Florida has lost four in a row and this is the finale of its first five-game road trip, before four difficult home games.

Clearly, the defending champs are going to be motivated to avoid going 0-5 on their first road trip of the season.

Boston however enters equally motivated, as it also won its first three home games, before then going 0-4 on its most recent road trip, which includes a tight 3-2 loss at Utah last time out.

I actually had Boston on the puckline in that one, as it was only -125.

Typically I wouldn't bet against the defending champs to lose a fifth straight game, no matter what the sport was, but Boston enters equally as desperate, and it enjoys a significant home-ice advantage, as evidenced by its 3-0 start so far this season.

Between two teams struggling with scoring, but desperate for a break-out performance, something has to finally "give" on Tuesday night, and in my opinion there will be a plethora of scoring.

These teams do have great goaltending and defense for the most part, but clearly its been inconsistency on the offensive end that each side has had difficulty with.

But with these desperate and hungry teams pushing the pace from start to finish like I'm expecting, I think they'll eclipse the posted number sometime in the second period.

Being primarily a "situational" capper, the actual players on the ice become a less important part of the equation for me (or in any sport for that matter). Unless of course it's a star player like Connor McDavid that's out, or a last second change to a starting goaltender for some reason.

But, for the most part, a players absence from the line-up is reflected in the line, and that, along with what I perceive be great "situations," are what I'm looking at each day when I'm going over the daily boards and making my selections.

Despite who gets the start in net for either side, and despite what their offensive numbers say to this point, I think there are so many external factors pointing to these offenses FINALLY getting off the schneid and finding the back of the net, the OVER becomes the correct call as far as the total is concerned.

Good luck, NP

The PLAY: Total Under 6.5 (-135)

This is a FREE PLAY on the UNDER Carolina/Las Vegas.

The Best from the West clashes with the Beast from the East?!

I guess you could classify this game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Las Vegas Knights as that, as the visiting side is 5-0 and the home team is 4-0-2.

Carolina most recently won 4-3 in OT at the Kings, and it has three tough games ahead of it after this, with a contest at Colorado, at Dallas, and then back at home against these very Golden Knights.

Vegas comes in off three straight victories, with all three contests going OVER the number. While granted, it's still just the start of the season, it's still significant to note I think that looking back to last year, the Knights have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

As good as these offenses have been, their defensive play has been just as impressive. So while many may think it'll once again be these offenses that dominate the game, I see it going the other way, where a war of attrition happens and each side waits for the other to make the first mistake.

Situationally speaking, I love the way it sets up to be a tight, low-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout.

These teams also feature some of the best goaltending in the league, including the backups.

Whether it is Pyotr Kochetkov or Frederick Andersen, the home side will have its task cut out for it to find the back of the net too many times on Monday night.

Same thing for Carolina facing Las Vegas's skilled group led by Adin Hill.

When you add up all of the different situational and trend-based factors I've listed above, everything points to this being a much tighter defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, in my opinion.

Consider the UNDER.

Good luck, NP