Tom's NFC Best Bet

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Cleveland Browns +9.0 (-115)

Ravens @ Browns
Sunday, November 16, 2025 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Records & Trends

Ravens (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS): 2-2 ATS on road, 1-0 ATS in division, 3-1 ATS L4 games
Browns (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS): 3-0 ATS at home, 1-2 ATS in division, 1-3 ATS L4 games

Head to Head History
Baltimore crushed Cleveland 41-17 in Week 2. Ravens have won the last 3 meetings; Browns have dropped their last 2 (both road losses). Cleveland’s lone bright spot lately: a 31-6 home rout of Miami. No visitor has scored more than 17 points at Huntington Bank Field this season (Week 3 vs. CIN).
Offensive Matchup
Baltimore boasts a top 10 rushing attack led by Derrick Henry, but Cleveland’s pass defense is stingy and Myles Garrett is a one man wrecking crew. Expect constant heat—Henry included. The Ravens explosive offense faces a Browns D that ranks 25th in points allowed yet has been lights out at home.
Underdog Angle
Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a home division dog. In the Week 2 blowout, the Browns actually outgained Baltimore, posted more first downs, and ran 19 more plays—despite starting Joe Flacco.
Intangibles
Myles Garrett publicly called out the team after last week’s loss. Facing a division rival at home, the Browns will bring maximum effort. Rookie QB Dillon Gabriel keeps the offense simple against a Ravens defense that bleeds points.
Expectation
Low scoring, physical slugfest. Cleveland’s home dominance + motivation + historical cover rate as a divisional dog keeps this within a touchdown.
Pick: Browns +7.5 (BetOnline has +9 as of posting 11/15 4:45 EST)

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The PLAY: BYU -3.0 (-109)

TCU @ BYU
Saturday, November 15, 2025 | 10:15 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT | ESPN

Records & Trends
TCU (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

1-2-1 ATS on road
0-2-1 ATS in Big 12 road games
1-3 ATS last 4 games overall
BYU (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS)

3-1 ATS at home
3-1 ATS last 4 games
8-1 SU in last 9 home night games
Stakes
BYU: Controls its own path to the Big 12 title. Win out = championship game berth.
TCU: Eliminated from CFP contention with any loss, but a road upset in Provo would bolster their résumé for the committee.

Last Week
TCU: Gut punch home loss to Iowa State; late collapse exposed vulnerabilities.
BYU: First loss of the season at Texas Tech (a quality opponent). No shame, but pride is on the line returning to Provo.
Matchup Keys
BYU Offense (Big 12 #1, Top-15 nat’l in PPG & total yds)

Averaging 39.5 PPG at home.
Struggled at Texas Tech, but TCU’s opportunistic (not elite) defense ranks outside the Top 50 in yards allowed. Expect bounce back.
TCU Offense

Balanced, up tempo attack.
BYU’s run D is stout, but secondary is vulnerable—TCU should exploit through the air.
Series History

TCU has won last 3 meetings.
Intangibles
BYU: Night game in Provo altitude, motivated senior class, proven home dominance.
TCU: Road woes + emotional hangover from ISU collapse.
Line Movement & Public Sentiment
BYU opened -4.5, now -3; public heavily on Cougars (sharp concern, but motivation gap is real).
Pick: BYU -3
BYU’s superior offense, home-field edge, and championship urgency outweigh TCU’s series edge and pace. Cougars cover in a statement rebound.

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