Tom's La Liga Best Bet

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: New England Patriots -7.0 (-109)

New York Giants (2-10) at New England Patriots (10-2)
Monday Night Football – 8:15 PM EST – ESPN
Current Line: Patriots -7 (opened -7.5)
Total: 46.5
ATS & Total Trends
Giants

7-5 ATS overall
4-3 ATS on the road
3-1 ATS last 4 games
7-5 to the Over
6-2 Over in last 8

Patriots

8-4 ATS overall
3-3 ATS at home
3-1 ATS vs NFC
6-6 O/U overall
3-1 Over vs NFC

Head to Head (since 2015)

Patriots lead series 2-1
Giants won the most recent meeting in 2023 (10-7 at MetLife)
Since 2001: Giants are an outstanding 6-1 ATS vs New England (3-4 to the total)

Offensive & Defensive Splits
Giants

Score 22.0 PPG (30.9 PPG allowed on the road)
Played the league’s toughest schedule to date
Have held 4th quarter leads in several losses

Patriots

Score 26.5 PPG overall → 29.8 PPG vs NFC
Allow 18.8 PPG overall → 17.3 PPG at home
Last 8 games: allowing just 18.1 PPG
Played the league’s easiest schedule so far

Both teams prefer a methodical, clock controlling pace, but New England’s elite defense consistently gets offenses off the field on third down.
Key Situational Spots

Giants are off to their bye next week → 1-4 ATS in road games before a bye L5
After the bye, Giants face two very winnable games (Las Vegas, Washington) — classic “look ahead” spot
QB Jason Dart is cleared from concussion protocol and expected to start (many believe the team would be wiser to hold him out until after the bye)
National TV road game for a 2-10 team that just suffered a soul crushing OT loss last week

Historical Comp (Marc Lawrence)
The only time this season we’ve seen a 10-2 (or better) team on a 9-game win streak host a team on a 6-game losing streak:
2023 49ers (9-game win streak) vs Cardinals (6-game losing streak) → 49ers won 38-13
Small sample, but the superior team obliterated the inferior one.
Line Movement & Market Sentiment
Opened Patriots -7.5 → steamed down to -7 on heavy Giants money.
The public is pounding the desperate road dog getting points on Monday night. Sharp money has followed.
Final Take
Everything lines up for a flat spot for the Giants:

Road primetime game
Before their bye
Facing a far superior opponent
Coming off an emotionally draining loss
Looking ahead to two soft games post-bye

Meanwhile, New England is healthy, rolling on a 9-game win streak, fighting for the AFC’s #1 seed, and has been a brick wall at home against everyone — especially NFC offenses.
We’re paying a small premium laying the touchdown with the better team in every phase, but this has all the makings of a comfortable Patriots win that covers in the second half.
Play: Patriots -7

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The PLAY: Total Over 148.5 (-110)

Villanova vs Temple – November 30, 2025
#871 Temple Owls (4-3) at #872 Villanova Wildcats (5-1)
6:30 PM EST | FS1
Line: Villanova -14.5 | Total: 151.5 (some books still hanging 149.5)

Betting Trends

Temple 2-5 ATS, but 6-1 to the Over
Villanova 4-2 ATS (2-2 ATS at home), 3-3 Over overall but 3-1 Over at Finneran Pavilion
Head-to-Head: Villanova has won & covered 8 of the last 9; 6 of the last 10 went Over
Combined points in recent Villanova home games: 158, 152, 160, 150 → averaging ~155

Why the Over looks strong (targeting 150.5 or better)

Pace & Style Matchup
Temple plays outright fast (top-50 tempo) and wants to turn this into a track meet. Villanova is more than happy to run at home — their offensive rating and scoring jump noticeably in Finneran Pavilion because they push off misses and turnovers.
3-Point Volume + Efficiency
Both teams live beyond the arc and are shooting it well this year (top-100 nationally in 3P%). When two good 3-point shooting, high-volume teams meet, variance tilts toward higher scoring, not lower.
Defensive Vulnerabilities
Temple gives up 76.6 PPG and has been particularly generous to good perimeter teams. Villanova’s defense is solid overall (68.7 PPG allowed), but they’ve been looser at home in small sample (opponents averaging 72+ in home games) and haven’t faced a tempo like Temple’s yet.
Free-Throw Parade Potential
Both shoot >78% from the line. Late-clock fouls in an up-and-down game almost guarantee bonus points.
Recent Scoring Environments
Villanova home games are averaging 155 combined points this season. Temple road/neutral games are averaging 153. The last five meetings between these two in Philadelphia have cleared 150 every single time.

Spread Thoughts (why I’m passing)
-14.5 feels bloated for a city rivalry where Temple always plays Villanova tough (even in years they get blown out, it’s usually closer early). The game script will likely be decided by which team gets hotter from three. Too much 3-point variance to lay double digits comfortably.
Official Play
Over 150.5 (would play up to 153)
Strongest angle on the board. Two high-tempo, high-efficiency 3-point shooting teams in a building where Villanova loves to run and gun. Expect 85-80, 90-75, or 88-84 type outcomes — all sail over.
Preferred number: 149.5 (-110) or better

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