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Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(901) Pittsburgh Pirates at (902) Atlanta Braves: Moneyline	1:05pm EST - Feb 25/2026

The PLAY: Pittsburgh Pirates -133

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Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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PIT @ ATL

Probable starters: Paul Skenes (PIT) vs Bryce Elder (ATL)
Weather (North Port, FL ~game time): mostly sunny, ~68–71°F

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Starter quality (recent + matchup)

• Skenes (2025): 1.97 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (elite run suppression)

• Skenes vs Braves (career): 6.0 IP, 1 ER allowed (tiny sample, but it’s the direct H2H you asked for)

• Elder (2025): 5.30 ERA, 1.39 WHIP (below-average run suppression)

• Elder vs Pirates (career): 5.00 ERA in 3 appearances (again: small sample)

• apply spring-training usage rules (short starts, heavy bullpen/prospect innings).

Spring-training pitcher usage assumptions (the big lever)

Because this is Skenes’ first spring start, the most common pattern is ~2.0 innings (sometimes 1–2). Elder similarly projects around ~2.0 innings early camp.

So I split the game into 3 run environments:

1. Innings 1–2 (starters, best control):

• PIT faces a weaker run-prevention starter (Elder) → PIT scoring up

• ATL faces an elite starter (Skenes) → ATL scoring down

2. Innings 3–5 (mid-relief mix): closer to “average-ish” scoring

3. Innings 6–9 (deeper pens / farm innings): scoring up (more walks, more mistakes, more defensive subs)

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baseline spring scoring

I start from a spring-style total around ~9 runs (spring games run hot because of bullpen churn + defensive subs), then make small adjustments:

• Warm-ish temps (upper 60s/low 70s) & clear → slight +run nudge

• Park treated ~neutral (I’m not baking in an extreme hitter/pitcher park effect here)

So I target a full-game total ~9.2 runs for this matchup.

Step B — allocate those runs by pitching segments

Innings 1–2 (starter innings):

• PIT vs Elder: 1.1 runs

• ATL vs Skenes: 0.5 runs
  (Reason: Elder’s 2025 profile is run-allowing ; Skenes’ 2025 profile is run-denying plus tiny H2H support .)

Innings 3–5 (3 innings of mixed relievers):

• PIT: 1.1 runs

• ATL: 1.0 runs

Innings 6–9 (4 innings, deeper pens):

• PIT: 2.7 runs

• ATL: 2.8 runs
  (Reason: late spring innings are where “who has the sharper depth today” matters most; I rate them close.)

Totals from the add-up

First 5 innings

• PIT: 1.1 + 1.1 = 2.2

• ATL: 0.5 + 1.0 = 1.5

• F5 total = 3.7

Full game

• PIT: 2.2 + 2.7 = 4.9

• ATL: 1.5 + 2.8 = 4.3

• FG total = 9.2

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Projected score

• Full game: PIT 4.9 – ATL 4.3

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Fair odds

I convert expected runs into win probability with a simple independent-Poisson scoring model

Full game (μ PIT=4.9, μ ATL=4.3)

• P(PIT wins) ≈ 0.577

• Fair moneyline PIT ≈ -137

• Fair moneyline ATL ≈ +137

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Book odds vs projected odds

Market	Team	Book ML	Projected win%	Projected “fair” ML	Value (Book – Fair)
Full	PIT	N/A	57.7%	-137	N/A
	ATL	N/A	42.3%	+137	N/A

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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(945) Cleveland Guardians at (946) Los Angeles Dodgers: Moneyline	3:05pm EST - Feb 24/2026

The PLAY: Cleveland Guardians 144

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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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CLE @ LAD — Spring Training — Feb 24, 2026 (Camelback Ranch, Glendale)

• Probable starters: CLE Gavin Williams (RHP) vs LAD Gavin Stone (RHP)

• Pitch-mix context: Williams (power fastball + breaker/sweeper mix) and Stone’s deep arsenal

• Assumptions (spring-weighted)

• Starters ~2.0 IP each (short early-spring leash).

• Bullpens/farm arms cover the rest (most important driver).

• Run multiplier = 1.03 for warm/dry + ball carrying a bit.

Projected scores (1 decimal) + calculations..

Full game

CLE = 3.4711 → 3.5
LAD = 3.7492 → 3.7

Final projection: LAD 3.7 – CLE 3.5

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Fair odds + book value chart (Book: CLE +143 / LAD -170)

Win% from projected runs using Pythagorean expectation (exp 1.83):

• LAD 52.54% → Fair ML -111

• CLE 47.46% → Fair ML +111

Team	Book ML	Book Implied %	Fair Win% (model)	Fair ML	Edge (Fair% − Book%)	ROI @ Book (per 1u risk)
CLE	+143	41.15%	47.46%	+111	+6.31%	+15.3%
LAD	-170	62.96%	52.54%	-111	-10.42%	-16.6%

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(941) San Diego Padres at (942) Chicago Cubs: Moneyline	3:05pm EST - Feb 24/2026

The PLAY: Chicago Cubs -125

ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT

This is an early bird special offered only for a limited time

50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:.

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon

_______

SD @ CHC — Spring Training — Feb 24, 2026 (Sloan Park, Mesa, AZ)

• Time: 12:05 PM PST / 2:05 PM CST

• Probable starters: SD Marco Gonzales (LHP) vs CHC Shota Imanaga (LHP)

• Park: Sloan Park (Mesa) — deep-ish gaps, ~410 ft CF

• Weather (Mesa, 2/24): warm afternoon (low/mid-80s °F)

Assumptions (spring-weighted)

• Starters go ~2.0 IP (short leash early spring).

• Bullpens/farm arms cover the rest (most important driver).

• Warm AZ air → small run bump: multiplier = 1.03 (applied to R/IP inputs).

Run model (explicit R/IP inputs → runs)

Base R/IP (then ×1.03):

• SD vs Imanaga (2 IP): 0.38

• SD vs CHC pen (3 IP early): 0.37

• CHC vs Gonzales (2 IP): 0.52

• CHC vs SD pen (3 IP early): 0.38

• Innings 6–9 “deeper pens”: SD vs CHC deep pen 0.35, CHC vs SD deep pen 0.39

Projected final score (1 decimal): CHC 3.9 – SD 3.4

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Fair odds + book value chart (Book: SD +105 / CHC -125)

• CHC win% = 56.11% → Fair ML ≈ -128

• SD win% = 43.89% → Fair ML ≈ +128

Team	Book ML	Book Implied %	Fair Win%	Fair ML	Edge (Fair% − Book%)	ROI @ Book (per 1u risk)
SD	+105	48.78%	43.89%	+128	-4.89%	-10.0%
CHC	-125	55.56%	56.11%	-128	+0.55%	+1.0%

Result: value to CHC -125