Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: New York Yankees -120

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Offense baseline

• Yankees: 5.24 R/G

• Giants: 4.35 R/G

• League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51

  • Offense index (approx):

    • NYY: 1.194

    • SFG: 0.991

Starters

Max Fried (NYY, LHP)

• 2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90

• 2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)

• 2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA

• 2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA

  batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)

• Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)

• Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)

Projected lineups

• Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells

• Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey

1) Starter expected innings (March workload)

Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:

• Webb: 5.0 IP

• Fried: 5.1 IP

2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter

Fried context RA9

• Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09

• Small March bump = 3.24

• H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65

Webb context RA9

• Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23

• Tiny March bump: = 3.29

• H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68

3) Park/weather/travel adjustments

• Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.

• Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)

4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)

Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)

Projection results

Full game projected score

• NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2

• Projected total: 7.2

1st 5 innings projected score

• NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8

• 1st5 projected total: 4.0

Starting pitcher boxscore

Hitter boxscore projection

NYY hitters

SFG hitters

Wager & Probability Analysis

Moneyline value vs book

Totals value (Full game O/U 7)

Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).

Totals value (1st 5 innings)

I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.

Pros for Yankees -120

• Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.

• Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.

• Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.

• Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.

• 7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.

The PLAY: Pittsburgh Pirates -133

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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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PIT @ ATL

Probable starters: Paul Skenes (PIT) vs Bryce Elder (ATL)
Weather (North Port, FL ~game time): mostly sunny, ~68–71°F

Starter quality (recent + matchup)

• Skenes (2025): 1.97 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (elite run suppression)

• Skenes vs Braves (career): 6.0 IP, 1 ER allowed (tiny sample, but it’s the direct H2H you asked for)

• Elder (2025): 5.30 ERA, 1.39 WHIP (below-average run suppression)

• Elder vs Pirates (career): 5.00 ERA in 3 appearances (again: small sample)

• apply spring-training usage rules (short starts, heavy bullpen/prospect innings).

Spring-training pitcher usage assumptions (the big lever)

Because this is Skenes’ first spring start, the most common pattern is ~2.0 innings (sometimes 1–2). Elder similarly projects around ~2.0 innings early camp.

So I split the game into 3 run environments:

1. Innings 1–2 (starters, best control):

• PIT faces a weaker run-prevention starter (Elder) → PIT scoring up

• ATL faces an elite starter (Skenes) → ATL scoring down

2. Innings 3–5 (mid-relief mix): closer to “average-ish” scoring

3. Innings 6–9 (deeper pens / farm innings): scoring up (more walks, more mistakes, more defensive subs)

baseline spring scoring

I start from a spring-style total around ~9 runs (spring games run hot because of bullpen churn + defensive subs), then make small adjustments:

• Warm-ish temps (upper 60s/low 70s) & clear → slight +run nudge

• Park treated ~neutral (I’m not baking in an extreme hitter/pitcher park effect here)

So I target a full-game total ~9.2 runs for this matchup.

Step B — allocate those runs by pitching segments

Innings 1–2 (starter innings):

• PIT vs Elder: 1.1 runs

• ATL vs Skenes: 0.5 runs
  (Reason: Elder’s 2025 profile is run-allowing ; Skenes’ 2025 profile is run-denying plus tiny H2H support .)

Innings 3–5 (3 innings of mixed relievers):

• PIT: 1.1 runs

• ATL: 1.0 runs

Innings 6–9 (4 innings, deeper pens):

• PIT: 2.7 runs

• ATL: 2.8 runs
  (Reason: late spring innings are where “who has the sharper depth today” matters most; I rate them close.)

Totals from the add-up

First 5 innings

• PIT: 1.1 + 1.1 = 2.2

• ATL: 0.5 + 1.0 = 1.5

• F5 total = 3.7

Full game

• PIT: 2.2 + 2.7 = 4.9

• ATL: 1.5 + 2.8 = 4.3

• FG total = 9.2

Projected score

• Full game: PIT 4.9 – ATL 4.3

Fair odds

I convert expected runs into win probability with a simple independent-Poisson scoring model

Full game (μ PIT=4.9, μ ATL=4.3)

• P(PIT wins) ≈ 0.577

• Fair moneyline PIT ≈ -137

• Fair moneyline ATL ≈ +137

Book odds vs projected odds