Streaks are noise. Results are receipts. Tokyo Brandon ranked #1 in All-Sports profit 3 of the last 5 years among WagerTalk's 33 cappers and is already +30 units in 2026.
2025: #4 All-Sports Profit (+49 units)
2024: #1 All-Sports Profit (+180 units)
2022: #1 All-Sports Profit (+125 units)
2021: #1 All-Sports Profit (+225 units)
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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline | 8:05pm EDT - Mar 25/2026 |
The PLAY: New York Yankees -120
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This is an early bird special offered only for a limited time
50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!
🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials
Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!
Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:
#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)
Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)
🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials
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_______
Offense baseline
Yankees: 5.24 R/G
Giants: 4.35 R/G
League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51
Offense index (approx):
NYY: 1.194
SFG: 0.991
Starters
Max Fried (NYY, LHP)
2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90
2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)
2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA
2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA
batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)
Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)
Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)
Projected lineups
Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells
Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey
1) Starter expected innings (March workload)
Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:
Webb: 5.0 IP
Fried: 5.1 IP
2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter
Fried context RA9
Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09
Small March bump = 3.24
H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65
Webb context RA9
Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23
Tiny March bump: = 3.29
H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68
3) Park/weather/travel adjustments
Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.
Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)
4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)
Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)
Projection results
Full game projected score
NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2
Projected total: 7.2
1st 5 innings projected score
NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8
1st5 projected total: 4.0
Starting pitcher boxscore
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Fried (NYY) | 5.1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
Logan Webb (SFG) | 5.0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
Hitter boxscore projection
NYY hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trent Grisham | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Aaron Judge | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Cody Bellinger | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ben Rice | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ryan McMahon | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
José Caballero | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Austin Wells | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
SFG hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heliot Ramos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Rafael Devers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Willy Adames | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Matt Chapman | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jung Hoo Lee | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Harrison Bader | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Bryce Eldridge | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Casey Schmitt | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Patrick Bailey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Wager & Probability Analysis
Moneyline value vs book
Team | Model win% | Fair ML | Book ML | Book implied% | Edge (Model–Book) | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NYY | 62.1% | -164 | -115 | 53.5% | +8.6% | +VALUE |
SFG | 37.9% | +164 | +105 | 48.8% | -10.9% | -VALUE |
Totals value (Full game O/U 7)
Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).
Market | Model proj | Model win% | Fair odds | Book odds | Edge | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push) | 7.2 | 51.1% (no-push) | -105 | -110 | -1.2% | -VALUE |
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push) | 7.2 | 48.9% (no-push) | +105 | -110 | -3.5% | -VALUE |
Totals value (1st 5 innings)
I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.
Market | Model proj (1st5) | Model win% | Fair odds | Assumed book | Edge | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st5 Over 3.5 | 4.0 | 56.5% | -130 | -110 | +4.1% | +VALUE |
1st5 Under 3.5 | 4.0 | 43.5% | +130 | -110 | -8.9% | -VALUE |
Pros for Yankees -120
Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.
Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.
Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.
Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.
7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (937) Miami Marlins at (938) Toronto Blue Jays: Moneyline | 1:07pm EST - Feb 26/2026 |
The PLAY: Miami Marlins 194
ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT
This is an early bird special offered only for a limited time
50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!
🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials
Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!
Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:
#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)
Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)
🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials
Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon
_______
Spring Training — MIA @ TOR (Feb 26, 2026)
Park: TD Ballpark (Dunedin, FL) — historically played very hitter-friendly in prior data snapshots (not perfect for spring comps, but it nudges run environment up a bit).
Probable starters: Braxton Garrett (MIA) vs Kevin Gausman (TOR).
Weather: mostly sunny, warming into the low/mid-70s°F → small scoring bump.
Assumptions
Starters short-leashed: project 2.0 IP each (early-camp).
Bullpen + depth decide (innings 6–9 are the chaos innings).
H2H batter-vs-pitcher since 4/15/2025: not meaningful here (Garrett missed 2025; spring lineups rotate constantly), so I don’t weight it as signal.
Bullpens (2025 baselines)
MIA bullpen ERA: 4.28
TOR bullpen ERA: 3.98
Projected full-game score (1 decimal): MIA 4.8 — TOR 5.6
Fair odds (full game) vs book
TOR win% ≈ 57.7% → fair ML ≈ -136
MIA win% ≈ 42.3% → fair ML ≈ +136
Value chart
Team | Book ML | Implied % | Projected % | Fair ML (proj) | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MIA | +190 | 34.5% | 42.3% | +136 | ✅ Value MIA |
TOR | -230 | 69.7% | 57.7% | -136 | ❌ Overpriced TOR |
Takeaway: Toronto should be favored, but -230 is a spring-training tax. With Garrett being managed carefully but the market still charging “big favorite” prices, MIA +190 grades as the value side in this model..