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Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Detroit Lions -5.5 (-110)

The GoldSheet enters Thursday's action with a 7-1 record with their September football. Here's their take on the Bears/Lions game:

Detroit has won five of the last six meetings, but the Bears are 3-1 against the spread over the last two years. Jared Goff looked lost against the Packers at Lambeau on Sunday, but he should look a little better in the friendly conditions at Ford Field. Dating back to his days with the Rams, Goff-led teams are 41-18-1 against the spread in indoor games since 2019. We have some concerns about Goff and the Lions' offense as they now face their former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who will be on the opposite sideline. But we're not overly concerned about Detroit's defense in this matchup. The Lions' defense held Chicago to 17 and 20 points in last year's meetings. What we saw from the Bears on Monday night against the Vikings looked a lot like what we saw from the Bears last season: Caleb Williams looked great during the "scripted" portion of the game, but couldn't move the ball once they got past that point. The Bears went 61 yards on ten plays, capped off by a nine-yard touchdown run from Williams to open the game. That series featured several of Coach Johnson's scripted plays that Chicago worked on in practice last week. Once that script ran out and Williams was forced to work outside his comfort zone, we saw a lot of the same issues that plagued the Bears last year. 
Play Detroit.

The PLAY: Total Over 44.0 (-112)

We were 7-1 with last week's football plays, 3-0 with college football and 4-1 with NFL. In fact, we narrowly missed out on the 8-0 sweep, as Baltimore was up double-digits in the closing minutes but couldn't hang on. Either way, we're happy with the 7-1 card and we're ready for another profitable week. Here, we'll take a look at the total from the Sunday afternoon matchup between the Dolphins and the Patriots. 

Miami is 8-1 straight-up, 9-0 against the spread in the last nine meetings between these AFC East foes. Over the last six meetings, the Patriots' offense has averaged just 265.7 yards per game against the Dolphins' defense and New England did not crack the 300-yard mark in any of those six games. New England closed as an underdog in every game last season, so the Patriots' Week 1 game vs Las Vegas was their first time favored in a game since the 2023-24 season. We didn't have a favorable outlook on either team entering this season, so we're not shocked by either team's disappointing Week 1 result. We are expecting to see some more points in this one, however. 

The total for this AFC East clash opened at 44 points, and you have to go back to the 2023-24 playoffs in the frigid conditions in Kansas City to find the last time the Dolphins were involved in a game with a total below 44 points with Tua Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback. Tagovailoa had arguably his best game in the NFL against this Patriots defense last season, going 29-of-40 for 317 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Expect both offenses to throw the kitchen sink at this one in hopes of avoiding an 0-2 start. 
Play the Over.