Mets vs Braves Betting Preview
Sportsmemo MLB handicapper Eric Pauly offers his New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves betting preview for Thursday, August 4. A pair of 11+ win pitchers take the mound tonight for the Mets and Braves in Carlos Carrasco and Kyle Wright.
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Thursday, August 4 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
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Moneyline: | New York Mets -115 vs Atlanta Braves +105 |
Runline: | Mets -1.5 (+175) / Braves +1.5 (-200) |
Total: | 8 Runs (Over -115 / Under -105) |
Game Time: | 7:10pm ET / 4:10pm PT |
Where: | Citi Field in Queens, NY |
Weather: | 85 Degrees / Clear |
Mets vs Braves Analysis
On Thursday night, the Mets and Braves face off for the first game of a five-game series. At the moment, the Mets have a 3.5-game lead over the Braves in the NL East, but that can change by the end of the weekend.
The Mets lead the season series against the Braves 4-3. For this matchup, the Mets are -120 home favorites, the run line is 1.5, and the total is set at 8 runs.
Wright Up For The Challenge
As I mentioned earlier, the Braves are 3.5 games behind the Mets for first place, so this series against the Mets is a major series for Atlanta. The Braves are coming off a split series vs the Phillies and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Braves are 26-20 on the road this year and they are 12-9 covering the spread as an underdog.
Kyle Wright will make the start for the Braves tonight in New York. Wright is 13-4 on the season with a 2.93 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 3.38 FIP. In his last three starts, Wright has allowed six runs on 19 hits over 19.2 innings of work.
On 5/3, Wright faced the Mets in New York in the fifth start of his career and he allowed three runs on nine hits over seven innings of work in a Braves loss. On the road this year, Wright has a 2.72 ERA, 2.36 FIP, and a 1.26 WHIP. The Braves are 5-2 in Wright’s seven road starts this year.
Carrasco Familiar With Braves This Season
The Mets are currently rolling, but they need to continue this momentum in order to build on their lead in the NL East. If the Mets get swept by the Braves, they will drop to second place for the first time since the very beginning of the season.
New York is 31-17 at home this season and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games. As a favorite, the Mets are 41-36 covering the run line this year.
Carlos Carrasco will make the Mets tonight at home against the Braves. Carrasco is 11-4 on the season with a 3.79 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and a 3.43 FIP. Carrasco has not allowed a single run in his last three starts and he has allowed just 21 base runners in those 20.2 innings of work.
On 5/3, Carrasco faced off against the Braves and Wright, and Carrasco allowed no runs on six hits in eight innings. At home this year, Carrasco has a 3.30 ERA, a 3.16 FIP, and a 1.36 WHIP. The Mets are 8-3 in-home games that Carrasco starts this season.
Mets vs Braves Prediction
While the numbers may be in the Mets’ favor, I have to go with the visiting Braves here. The Mets did not address their bullpen at the deadline, and I think it will bite them in the butt.
Atlanta has been on fire with no signs of slowing down, so I expect them to take game one from the Mets tonight at Citi Field:
Prediction: Atlanta Braves Moneyline +106
Interested in placing a bet on Thursday’s Mets vs Braves NL East clash? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
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First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Thursday, August 4
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Sportsmemo’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the MLB moneylines, run lines and betting percentages for all of Thursday’s baseball games, including this Mets vs Braves showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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