NFL Week 7 Betting Preview
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, SuperBook Sports releases their look-ahead lines for the following week, about 10-12 days before those games kick off. Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly offers his analysis of the NFL Week 7 opening lines, and what bettors should be watching for in this weekend’s games.
NFL Week 7 as of Wednesday, October 12 | Courtesy of SuperBook Sports |
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Arizona Cardinals -2 vs. New Orleans Saints | o/u 46 |
Baltimore Ravens -6 vs. Cleveland Browns | o/u 44.5 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5 at Carolina Panthers | o/u 41 |
Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons | o/u 43.5 |
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 vs. Detroit Lions | o/u 47.5 |
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. New York Giants | o/u 42 |
Green Bay Packers -5.5 at Washington Commanders | o/u 43.5 |
Tennessee Titans -1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts | o/u 42 |
Las Vegas Raiders -6.5 vs. Houston Texans | o/u 42 |
Denver Broncos -3.5 vs. New York Jets | o/u 43.5 |
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 at San Francisco 49ers | o/u 47.5 |
Los Angeles Chargers -7.5 at Seattle Seahawks | o/u 53. |
Miami Dolphins -6 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | o/u 42.5 |
New England Patriots -6 vs. Chicago Bears | o/u 38.5 |
Using NFL Look-Ahead Lines
Every week, before I look at the spreads and totals for the upcoming week, I set my own spreads and totals based on my power rankings so I can compare them to the SuperBook’s lines.
This process is a great exercise for both professional and new bettors, and I recommend all NFL bettors attempt to set their own lines. Taking these steps allows me to check the strength of my power ratings, find edges, and build an understanding of how the market views each team from week to week.
After the Week 6 games are completed, I readjust my spreads and totals based on the new information from that past week, then I compare these numbers to the updated spreads and totals for that week.
Using that information, I have a picture painted of where I thought spreads and total should sit in the first place if I believe these numbers will rise or fall, and if I have an edge over the market or if I am completely mispriced compared to the market.
NFL Week 7 Odds Analysis
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals – Thursday Night Football
My Projections: Arizona -2.5, O/U 50
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Arizona -2, O/U 46
I was on point with the spread here, but I am anticipating more points than the look-ahead line. I think the number will fall somewhere in the middle of 50 and 46 after Week 6 is played and the Cardinals’ offense explodes against the Seahawks. The Cardinals’ offense has not been great this year, but neither has the Saints’ defense, so I expect this number to jump up a tick.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
My Projections: Baltimore -4, O/U 48
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Baltimore -6, O/U 44.5
I had Baltimore as a slightly smaller favorite and I have a higher total in this game. The Browns’ offense, though run-heavy, is capable of moving the football, and I think Brissett can pass the ball on this underperforming Raven’s defense. On the other hand, the Browns’ defense can’t stop a nosebleed, and though these are two run-heavy teams, I expect this total to climb closer to 48 after Week 6.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
My Projections: Tampa Bay -9, O/U 42.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Tampa Bay -9.5, O/U 41
I was on point with the spread and total and I do not expect much movement here. The Panthers are arguably the worst team in the NFL and the Buccaneers’ defense should suffocate them. Brady is slowly getting back into form and I do not see this spread getting any lower than TB -9 or any higher than TB -10.5.
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals
My Projections: Cincinnati -3.5, O/U 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Cincinnati -6.5, O/U 43.5
I had the Bengals as smaller favorites simply due to how well the Falcons have played on defense this year, considering their general lack of talent. The Bengals are one-dimensional offensively and I do not expect them to find the ground game even against a poor run defense. The Bengals have no business being this high of favorites and I think this number comes down after Week 6.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
My Projections: Dallas -3, O/U 50
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Dallas -6.5, O/U 47.5
I had Dallas only as a slight favorite, but this number may indicate that SuperBook expects Dak to suit up in Week 7. The Cowboys’ defense has been exceptional this season, and the Lions’ defense has been horrible, but their offense can move the ball. I do not see Dallas reopening as a bigger favorite and I think my number is underestimating them. I think this game sits at DAL -6 all next week.
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
My Projections: PK, O/U 42.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Jacksonville -3, O/U 42
The Giants have far exceeded my projections this year, and I may be overcompensating. Both of these two teams have had great showings this year but both of these teams are also not overly talented. I think this number will sit JAX -3 after Week 6 but will be closer to JAX -1 before Week 7 officially kicks off.
Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders
My Projections: Green Bay -6, O/U 44
SuperBook’s Green Bay -5.5, O/U 43.5
I was on point with the spread and total here, and I do not think a lot will change throughout the week in this matchup. Both of these teams have been beyond disappointing this season, and neither team has a matchup against a good team in Week 6. I expect both the total and spread to pretty much stay put.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
My Projections: Tennessee -3, O/U 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Tennessee-1.5, O/U 42
The Titans have the Colts’ number in the past few seasons, but the Titans, despite winning three games this year, have been bad. The Colts obviously have their own problems, but I think I am undervaluing them. I was on point with the total, but I think this spread may close closer to PK before Week 7 kicks off, and I do not expect Week 6 to tell us too much, especially since TEN is on a bye.
Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders
My Projections: Las Vegas -6, O/U 44.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Las Vegas -6.5, O/U 42
I was slightly higher on the total here, and I expect both my projections and the opening line to tick up to 45. These teams are both bad defensively and they move the ball well. As for the spread, I think it makes a ton of sense, and I can see it sitting at LV -6/6.5 all week until the game begins.
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
My Projections: Denver -3.5, O/U 42.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Denver -3.5, O/U 43.5
The Jets are winning football games, and the Broncos look atrocious, but the Jets should not cover this spread in Denver. I think reality sets in for the Jets after Week 6 and I think the Broncos will enjoy their bye week. I expect this to reopen closer to DEN -4.5 and to close closer to DEN -6.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
My Projections: Kansas City -3, O/U 46
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Kansas City -1.5, O/U 47.5
I may be undervaluing the 49ers here, and I should not be. This defense is as good as any D in the NFL. What the Chiefs do on offense is spectacular, but they will have a tough task, especially after a huge game vs. Buffalo in Week 6. I think this look-ahead spread is more accurate than my own and I can see SF becoming a very slight favorite before this game kicks off.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers
My Projections: Los Angeles -6, O/U 51.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Los Angeles -7.5, O/U 53
I think this spread comes down. I don’t see a world where the Chargers are 7.5-point favorites against Seattle, especially in a game with a total of 53. I anticipate that this spread will come down closer to my number when Week 6 is completed.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins – Sunday Night Football
My Projections: Miami -5.5, O/U 42.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Miami -6, O/U 42.5
I was on point with the spread and the total here, and I am not shocked. Brian Flores may want his revenge on Miami, but his team is really not talented enough defensively without T.J. Watt. I do think this number will come down slightly to MIA -5, especially if Pickett can move the ball in Week 6 against the Bucs.
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots – Monday Night Football
My Projections: New England -7, O/U 40
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: New England -6, O/U 38.5
I was close on the spread and total, and I expect this spread to creep closer toward my numbers. Bill Belichick is a master at defeating young, inexperienced QBs, and he will have a field day with Justin Fields (no pun intended). I think this number climbs up after Week 6, but if it doesn’t, the Patriots are a great leg for a Week 7 6-point teaser.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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