NFL Week 11 Betting Preview
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, SuperBook Sports releases their look-ahead lines for the following week, about 10-12 days before those games kick-off. Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly offers his analysis of the NFL Week 11 opening lines, and what bettors should be watching for in this weekend’s games.
NFL Week 11 as of Thursday, November 10 | Courtesy of SuperBook Sports |
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Green Bay Packers -1 vs Tennessee Titans | o/u 41 |
Baltimore Ravens -12.5 vs Carolina Panthers | o/u 44 |
Buffalo Bills -6.5 vs Cleveland Browns | o/u 44 |
Philadelphia Eagles -9.5 at Indianapolis Colts | o/u 43.5 |
Washington Commanders -2.5 at Houston Texans | o/u 40.5 |
New England Patriots -5.5 vs New York Jets | o/u 39.5 |
New York Giants -4 vs Detroit Lions | o/u 45 |
Los Angeles Rams PK at New Orleans Saints | o/u 42.5 |
Atlanta Falcons -5 vs Chicago Bears | o/u 48 |
Denver Broncos -1.5 vs Las Vegas Raiders | o.u 43.5 |
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 at Los Angeles Chargers | o/u 50 |
Minnesota Vikings PK vs Dallas Cowboys | o/u 47 |
Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers | o/u 42.5 |
San Francisco 49ers -5.5 vs Arizona (Neutral) | o/u 45 |
Using NFL Look-Ahead Lines
Every week, before I look at the spreads and totals for the upcoming week, I set my own spreads and totals based on my power rankings so I can compare them to the SuperBook’s lines.
This process is a great exercise for both professional and new bettors, and I recommend all NFL bettors attempt to set their own lines. Taking these steps allows me to check the strength of my power ratings, find edges, and build an understanding of how the market views each team from week to week.
After that week’s games are completed, I readjust my spreads and totals based on the new information from that past week, then I compare these numbers to the updated spreads and totals for that week.
Using that information, I have a picture painted of where I thought spreads and total should sit in the first place if I believe these numbers will rise or fall, and if I have an edge over the market or if I am completely mispriced compared to the market.
NFL Week 11 Odds Analysis
Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans – Thursday Night Football
My projections: Green Bay -2.5, O/U 43
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Green Bay -1, O/U 41
I was slightly off on the spread and total here. Despite what happens in Week 10, I do not anticipate much change in the market here unless it is certain that Ryan Tannehill will make the start for the Titans. I do not expect much movement in this game.
Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers
My projections: Baltimore -10.5, O/U 43
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Baltimore -12.5, O/U 44
I was close with the spread and total here, but still off by a few points. I do not expect movement in the total, but I do expect this line to come down after Week 9. The Panthers are bad, but the Ravens have issues also, and 12 points are way too many for this matchup.
Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns
My projections: Buffalo -6, O/U 47
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Buffalo -6.5, O/U 44
I was on point with the spread here but I am high on the total. This spread and total is created under the impression Josh Allen will not be 100% in this game. Depending on his status, this game will either see an increase or a decrease in the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts
My projections: Philadelphia -10, O/U 44.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Philadelphia -10.5, O/U 43.5
I was close to the spread and total here, but I actually think the spread may increase. Jeff Saturday will make his coaching debut for Indy in Week 10 and I expect him to be a disaster. If that is the case, the Eagles may be two-touchdown favorites before this game kicks off.
Washington Commanders at Houston Texans
My projections: Washington -4, O/U 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Washington -2.5, O/U 40.5
I was off with the spread and total here, but I think the SuperBook has this game mispriced. Washington is not great, but the Texans are one of the worst teams in football. I do not see a world where the commanders are not at least three-point favorites on the road in Houston. Expect this line to close closer to my projection.
New England Patriots vs New York Jets
My projections: New England -3.5, O/U 40
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: New England -5.5, O/U 39.5
I was close with the total but off on the spread here. I think SuperBook is putting too much stock into the Patriots’ win against the Jets earlier this season. Mac Jones has been bad for New England and the Jets’ defense is legit. I see this line re-opening closer to New England -3.
New York Giants vs Detroit Lions
My projections: New York -3.5, O/U 44.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: New York -4, O/U 45
I was close with both the spread and the total here. I do not see this spread getting much higher. These teams both have their issues and I do not disagree with the spread or total set by SuperBook.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
My projections: New Orleans PK, O/U 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: New Orleans PK, O/U 42.5
I was on point with the spread but slightly off on the total. Both of these teams are dealing with injuries and inconsistent play so I do not expect a lot of change in the market heading into Week 11.
Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears
My projections: Atlanta -3, O/U 48
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Atlanta -5, O/U 48
I was on point with the total here, and I think SuperBook is giving Atlanta too much credit. These teams are both bad defensively, but I think the Bears match up well with Atlanta. This should be closer to 3 when the game reopens after Week 10.
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders
My projections: Denver PK, O/U 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Denver -1.5, O/U 43.5
I was close with the spread and on point with the total here. I can see why Denver is a short favorite in this game and I do not expect much change in the market for this matchup.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
My projections: Kansas City -3.5, O/U 48.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Kansas City -5.5, O/U 50
I was close with the spread and total here but am slightly off. I do not expect any changes in the total, but I do expect this spread to come down. The Chargers play the Chiefs well and they have a good formula for slowing down Mahomes. This game should reopen closer to my projection.
Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys
My projections: Dallas -2, O/U 48
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Dallas PK, O/U 47
I was close with the total but off on the spread. I give Dallas the nod since I think the Vikings are overrated. Week 10 won’t tell us much unless the Vikings lose to the Josh Allen-less Bills. I expect Dallas to head into this game as at least 1.5-point favorites.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
My projections: Cincinnati -3.5, O/U 44.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Cincinnati -5.5, O/U 42.5
I am off on the spread and total here and I expect this spread to come down closer to my pjojections. T.J Watt should be active for the Steelers and he is an absolute game-changer. He is worth at least a point to the spread, bringing this line down.
San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona (Neutral)
My projections: San Francisco -6, O/U 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: San Francisco -5.5, O/U 45
I was close with the spread and the total here, and I do not expect much movement in this game. As divisional rivals, these teams know each other well, but SF is clearly the better team, and 6 is fair on a neutral field.
Interested in placing a bet on the NFL Week 11 point spreads or totals? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 risk-free bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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