Boise State vs UNLV Betting Preview
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his Boise State vs UNLV prediction in the Mountain West Conference. At the time of posting, the Broncos have opened as a 9-point home favorite over the road Rebels, with the total sitting at 130.5 points.
Check out our College Basketball Free Picks page for betting thoughts from some of the country’s top handicappers.
Friday, February 11 | Mountain West Conference Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Boise State Broncos -9 vs UNLV |
Total: | 130.5 Points |
Game Time: | 11:00pm ET / 8:00pm PT |
Arena: | ExtraMile Arena in Boise, ID |
TV: | FS1 |
Boise State vs UNLV Analysis
Friday’s card ends with a big match-up in the Mountain West conference as UNLV takes the trip to Boise to take on the Broncos. There seems to be limited questions in regards to the better team in this match-up on paper, but will injuries shake things up?
UNLV has three players listed as questionable coming into the game, but both teams have one important name on the list, UNLV may be without Donovan Williams who has started 12 of the 19 games he has played this season and is just one of two players on this team that are utilized in over 28% of possessions for the team, which may be due to the fact that he ranks in the top-100 in 3PT% in the country.
Boise State also may be without Emmanuel Akot, a senior that has started 21 games this season and has been used in 20-24% of the teams possessions, it may not come as a surprise, but he is also one of the top three point shooters in the country and the 2nd best shooter from beyond the arc on this team.
UNLV Struggling Against Good Teams
UNLV is 13-10 on the season, still sitting above that .500 mark, but they are 6-5 against the conference and this game could potentially put them back even against conference opponents, as they look to improve their 6th place ranking in the Mountain West.
UNLV ranks just outside KenPom’s top-100 overall (ranking #101), and they do possess an offense that ranks in the top-75, but they have had a multitude of peaks and valleys in this season thus far.
In just the last five games, they have allowed under 60 points and 34.5% shooting or less to the opponent twice, yet in two of the other games, they allowed over 80 points and 52.5% shooting or better! Dating back to the last nine games, they have allowed 50% shooting or better in four of those games, and held opponents to 36.7% shooting or worse in four other games!
It is all a question of which defense we are going to see, but UNLV has just one win against KenPom’s top-100 teams, and just one win in the last 10 games against defenses in the top-100.
The trends seem to lean towards the fact that we may see the struggling defense as they are just 1-13 on the money line against teams attempting 21 or more three points in the last two season and just 1-1 on the money line away from home against conference opponents.
UNLV has also struggled against quality teams down the stretch, after the 15 game mark in the season, they are just 1-8 on the money line in the last two years against teams over .500, failing to capitalize on the big games as the season comes to a close.
Broncos Gaining Ground in Mountain West
Boise State comes into this game ranked #30 in the most recent AP polls, closing in on the top-25 with a 17-5 record on the season and currently holding the #2 spot in the conference with a 9-1 record against the Mountain West.
The Broncos have also posted a 9-2 record on their home court this year, winning by almost 10 points per game on average. They may have a slightly below average offense, but their defense is top-10 caliber at this point in the season!
Boise State has allowed just 59 PPG this season, holding conference opponents under 60 points, as well as the opponents traveling to Boise.
Their record at home and against conference opponents are impressive, but the way the defense has played, it doesn’t seem to matter who they are playing, seeing as they have won 15 of the last 16 games and seven of their last eight against top-100 ranked offenses in terms of efficiency!
They have also won four of the last five against UNLV on the money line in the last three years, and winning 9 of the last 11 games on their home court against UNLV since 1997.
Boise State is also 10-3 on the money line against teams over .500 this season, 10-1 against poor pressure defenses (forcing 14 or less TO’s per game), 12-2 after a win by 10 or more points in the last two seasons and 23-6 at home off a game where they won straight up but failed to cover the spread.
Boise State vs UNLV Prediction
I mentioned a couple days back how the Mountain West Conference has made a name for themselves as a top defensive conference. Boise State is no different, their defense will be the difference maker, but injuries may play a big role.
Keep an eye out this evening to see if Williams and Akot will suit up for this match-up as Boise State goes for their 10th conference win, and UNLV looks to stay above .500 in their conference record.
Prediction: Boise State -9
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Boise State vs UNLV Preview from GoldSheet
There’s some buzz around the Mountain West that Kevin Kruger’s Rebels might be setting a trap at ExtraMile for the host Broncos, whose 14-game win streak was snapped last weekend at Wyoming.
Buoying UNLV’s hopes was a recent win at top MW contender Colorado State when G Bryce Hamilton channeled his inner Reggie Theus and torched the Rams with 45, the type of performance we have rarely seen from the Rebs since Tark’s days a generation ago.
Boise, however, is built to take volume shooters like Hamilton out of the game, as Leon Rice has various lengthy and athletic defenders to run at Hamilton on the perimeter.
Don’t forget that the Broncos excel on the stop end, allowing just 59 ppg (ranks 6th in nation), and have led the MW all season in rebound margin with a collection of functional bigs led by emerging 6-7 PF Tyson Degenhart, who just notched a season-high 23 points in the last game (vs. San Jose).
The team stat sheets, however, tell you what you need to know here, as the balanced Broncos have four double digit scorers and a variety of players who have led the team in scoring on any given night.
Meanwhile, UNLV about as much of a one-man show as you can find with Hamilton, and the same Rebel upset talk didn’t materialize into anything last weekend at Logan when the Utah State rolled, 90-75.
“Totals” alert–note the recent shift in Boise patterns with three straight “overs” following a stretch of five straight “under” results. Play Boise State and the Over.
College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Friday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s Boise State vs UNLV contest.
NCAAB Odds Screen
Sportsmemo’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the college basketball point spreads, moneylines, first half lines and betting percentages for all of Friday’s NCAAB games, including this Boise State vs UNLV showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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