Kansas vs Kansas State Predictions and Betting Preview
Sportsmemo handicapper JM Sports offers his Kansas vs Kansas State betting preview in the Big 12 Conference for Tuesday, February 22. At the time of posting, the Jayhawks are a 12.5-point home favorite against the road Wildcats, with the total sitting at 141.5 points.
Check out our College Basketball Free Picks page for betting thoughts from some of the country’s top handicappers.
Tuesday, February 22 | Big 12 Conference Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Kansas Jayhawks -12.5 vs Kansas State Wildcats |
Total: | 141.5 Points |
Game Time: | 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT |
Arena: | Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, KS |
TV: | ESPN |
Kansas vs Kansas State Analysis
The battle of Kansas is set to kick off Tuesday night for the second time this season, and this time, it is in the house of the Jayhawks as Kansas plays host to Kansas State in this Big 12 battle.
Kansas is yet again one of the best teams in the nation, securing the #5 spot in the most recent AP poll, and holding a lead over Baylor for the conference lead.
Kansas State has kept themselves above .500, but not by much with a 13-12 record on the season. K-State is currently 6th in the conference standings and they are looking to get just their 2nd win in 25 games since 1997 at the Allen Fieldhouse.
Wildcats Offense Has a Problem
Kansas State may not have the most impressive record that we have seen this season, but they have played a top-10 schedule in terms of difficulty, while posting an 8-2 record against the spread on the road this year.
They have been able to keep a good majority of their games close this season, including the previous match-up against Kansas, where they lost by just three points, using their defense to their advantage.
Their offense ranks in the top-75 in offensive efficiency, but they have played the 3rd hardest schedule in terms of the defensive units of the opposition.
They have continuously played powerhouse teams on the defensive side of the ball, play 10 games against teams that rank in just the top-30 in the nation! K-State is just 3-7 straight up in those games, while putting up just under 65 PPG.
Although, on the other side of the ball, the Wildcats have played nine teams in the top-50 in offensive efficiency, and while they again posted an underwhelming 2-7 record, they have held those opponents to 68.9 PPG, an impressive feat when you look at the talent they have faced on that side of the ball (Illini, Marquette, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas and Baylor).
They are the 5th best team in the country at limiting the 3PT shot for the opposition, but they have struggled defending teams inside the arc. While they have struggled from beyond the arc on the offensive side of things, ranking just 284th in 3PT% on the season.
Kansas State has won three of their last five games, while covering four of the last five, but they have put up under 37.5% shooting in back-to-back games.
The offense has also struggled in the last three seasons off a road loss, they are just 4-15 on the money line, but they are averaging under 60 PPG in that situation, while allowing nearly 67 points.
On the other side of things, K-State is 8-0 against the spread as a road underdog of 6.5-12 points in the last 3 years, losing by just 0.3 PPG on average, netting a hefty advantage against the spread.
Kansas Keeps it Balanced
Kansas has been on of the most dominating forces of the decade, after a slight lull for a few short years, they find themselves bask and better then ever in the top-5.
They have lost just four games this season, including just two games against conference opponents, putting them #1 in the conference and #5 in the nation.
They have lost just one game on their home court this season, a blowout loss to Kentucky, who sits just 1 spot behind them in the most recent AP poll.
Even with an 18 point loss against Kentucky, they are still winning their games at home by over 15 points on average, putting up nearly 81 PPG. While Kansas has won five of their last seven games, that seven game stretch has accounted for half their losses all season.
None the less, Kansas is still one of the most dominant teams in the league this season, as they have posted a 22-4 record against the 2nd hardest schedule in the country.
They have been one of the most balanced teams around, ranking #4 in offensive efficiency, and 28th in defensive efficiency, getting the work done on both sides of the ball.
They are 19th in effective FG%, which may be boosted by the 17th best 2PT%, consistently cashing in on shots inside the arc, and on the limited occasions that they do miss, they are the 21st best team in D1 in offensive rebounding percentage.
Their defense is top-50 in effective FG% allowed, while sitting in the top-25 against the 3PT shot, although that shouldn’t be too much of a factor against a team like Kansas State that knows they have difficulty scoring from deep.
Three of their Four losses this season are against teams that equal their capability in terms of offensive and defensive balance, Kentucky is the best team they have played this season (according to KenPom → #2 overall / #3 offense / #22 defense), Texas Tech is the 3rd best team they have seen (#10 overall / #41 offense / #2 defense) and Texas is the 4th best team they have seen (#14 overall / #35 offense / #10 defense).
So those three losses have come to top quality teams, and definitely wouldn’t be considered “bad losses”.
Kansas has absolutely dominated the head-to-head series, posting a 53-6 record since 1997 (40-19 against the spread), without losing a game against K-State in the last three years and they are 23-1 on their home court since 1997 (15-9 against the spread), which includes the match-up earlier this season.
Although Kansas hasn’t played to their highest potential after back-to-back impressive defensive efforts, this season they have failed to cover a single game after back-to-back outings allowing 65 or less points, allowing nearly 71 points to the opponents in the game to follow, winning by less then four points on average.
Kansas vs Kansas State Prediction
Any in-state battle, usually poses an exciting game for fans. Kansas is looking to continue it’s three game win streak, and ride the streak right into the tournament.
Kansas State looks to bounce back after their loss and potentially knock out a top-5 team, which would obviously be their biggest statement win on the season.
We know that Kansas State is capable of keeping this game close, they proved that in their last match-up, but by the looks of it, K-State is going to have to put up more then the 65 PPG they are averaging against top-30 ranked defensive units.
After seeing the last game between these two teams, and how close this Wildcats team kept it, I am taking K-State and the points.
You have to put this Kansas team on a potential upset alert, solely off the previous match-up, and while I don’t think Kansas will fall at home, an 8-0 record against the spread as a big dog is enticing when you look at this Kansas State team.
Especially when you add the fact that they are 10-4 against the spread in conference games, and 8-2 against the spread on the road this year, against some top competition.
Prediction: Kansas State +12.5
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Kansas vs Kansas State GoldSheet Preview
College Basketball Stat Sheet
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