Nevada vs San Diego State Prediction & Expert Betting Advice
Sportsmemo college basketball analyst Kyle Kargel gives his Nevada vs San Diego State college basketball prediction with five teams separated by 1.5 games at the top of the standings.
This Mountain West Conference bout tips off at 11:00pm ET from the Lawlor Events Center in Reno, NV.
Both Nevada and San Diego State score 73+ ppg on the season and allow 66 ppg to opponents as each sit in the top five of the Mountain West Conference standings.
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Nevada vs San Diego State: Betting Odds
Tuesday, January 31 | Mountain West Conference Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Nevada Wolf Pack +3 vs San Diego State Aztecs |
Total: | 137.5 Points |
Game Time: | 11:00pm ET / 8:00pm PT |
Arena: | Lawlor Events Center in Reno, NV (Odds Above by DraftKings) |
TV: | CBS Sports Network |
Nevada vs San Diego State Betting Analysis
When Nevada and San Diego State met first three weeks ago, the Aztecs came away with a 74-65 home win while being listed anywhere from 9 to 9.5-point favorites.
This time the Aztecs head into Reno as 2.5-point favorites with the Wolfpack alternating straight up wins and losses since that game. San Diego State has gone 11-1 in their last 12 but are only 8-10-2 against the spread overall on the season opposed to the Wolf Pack’s 12-7-2 against the spread record.
The Aztecs are not only winning, but winning by margin as their last three wins have all come by double digits. Who will come out on top in this Mountain West Conference battle? Let’s find some betting angles.
Aztecs Handling Mountain West Conference
San Diego State has yet to lose a true road game this season going 5-0 thus far and look to keep that streak going with their well-rounded play.
They rank top 35 nationally in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. They play slightly up-tempo ranking 78th in quickest average time of possession on offense but they force opposing offenses to milk much of the shot clock.
They force offenses to play at the 15th slowest pace of any team in the country. They rely on their senior duo of Jaedon LeDee and Nathan Mensah down low as each average 18+ minutes per game as well as over 11 rebounds combined as well.
The Aztecs rely immensely on their bench as well as nine different San Diego State players average 15+ minutes of playing time per game ensuring fresh legs to make sure their defense stays top-notch for all 40 minutes.
San Diego State will be forced to play clean basketball on defense though as Nevada sits as one of the best free throw shooting teams in the nation.
Nevada Playing Inconsistent of Late
There’s no doubt that Nevada will be looking to drive the basketball to the rim ranking 4th nationwide in free throw shooting percentage. They’re 127th in 3pt attempts per game but only shooting it at 34% which 221st nationally.
San Diego State ranks in the top 50 in 3pt percentage allowed which should ensure even more of Nevada’s game plan for tonight. They force opponents to play slow like San Diego State, but they play a slower pace on offense than the Aztecs.
The Wolf Pack themselves rank inside the top 60 nationally in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. Jarod Lucas continues to lead this team in scoring but he’s only shot 36% from the field over the past three games in which Nevada went 1-2.
He could have a tough time again tonight which could be a reflection of how the Wolf Pack perform overall. Junior 7-foot center Will Baker could be the x-factor in this game but he must stay out of foul trouble.
He averages 13 ppg on the season but only scored two points in the teams 68-62 loss at UNLV. However, he does have two games in the last five where he scored 24+ points. This could be a problem for a San Diego State team who allows opponents to shoot 51% from 2pt range which is 248th nationally.
Nevada vs San Diego State Prediction: Take That Free Betting Pick!
San Diego State is on a roll right now and they play great on the road. Mountain West play is where the Aztecs go to feast after playing a grueling non-conference schedule.
I think they put away Nevada by more than three points tonight similar to how they did at home three weeks ago.
They just defeated an arguably better Utah State Team a week ago by 10 so let’s roll with San Diego State here to pick up another conference win and cover tonight.
Prediction: San Diego State Aztecs -3
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College Basketball Stat Sheet
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