Sweet 16 Predictions and Betting Preview: Miami vs Iowa State
Sportsmemo handicapper JM Sports gives his Miami vs Iowa State predictions and betting preview for the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 on Friday, March 25. At the time of posting, the Hurricanes are favored by 2.5-points against the Cyclones with the total sitting at 133 points.
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Friday, March 25 | Sweet 16 Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Miami Hurricanes -2.5 vs Iowa State Cyclones |
Total: | 133 Points |
Game Time: | Approx. 9:59pm ET / 6:59pm PT |
Arena: | United Center in Chicago, IL |
TV: | TBS |
Miami vs Iowa State Analysis
Who would have thought that this sweet-16 portion of the bracket that had anticipated a #2 Auburn vs. #3 Wisconsin match-up, would instead see #11 Iowa State take on #10 Miami (FL)?
Only 19 double-digit seeds have ever made it to the Elite 8, and we are guaranteed to get at least the 20th team coming out of this match-up.
Eight #10 seeds, nine #11 seeds, and just two #12 seeds (which includes Oregon State last year) have made it to the Elite 8, and only six of those teams made it to the Final Four. Surprisingly enough, five of those six teams in the Final Four have been from the 11 spot, a good sign for Iowa State, just ask Loyola-Chicago and UCLA in the last four years!
Although, Michigan and Saint Peter’s would like to add their names to that list as well!
Iowa State Stands Tall on Defense
This game may be one of the most evenly, uneven games in this years tournament. What I mean by that you may ask?
Iowa State has been one of the most impressive defensive units we have seen this season, while Miami has gotten this far almost solely because of their offensive production. Iowa State holds the 5th best defense in terms of efficiency in the country.
They are the 4th best team at forcing turnovers and the 8th best team defending the 3PT shot. Iowa State sits in the top-100 in average experience throughout their roster, which has helped their defense secure this record against the 10th hardest schedule in the country.
Although, in prime time, Iowa State hasn’t performed to their highest potential. They have played seven games against teams that rank in the top-30 offensively, yet what is supposed to be one of the best defenses in the country, is just 2-5 against those seven opponents.
None the less, Iowa State has still secured a 22-12 record on the season, impressive enough to make it to the Big Dance, but they have won just two of their last five games, but they were the two most important games to date, including the upset over Wisconsin & the win over LSU, both by just five points.
Their offense has shot under 36% combined in the last five games, while putting up just 51.6 PPG but it has still been enough to propel them to two straight tournament wins.
In those five games, they shot under 36% in four of the last five, but their defense has held their two tournament opponents under 37% shooting themselves.
Yet, covering the spread has been an entirely differently story, they have covered six of the last nine games, but will that stop the fact that the Cyclones are just 1-12 against the spread (ATS) after back-to-back games where they held the opposition to 37% or less shooting, dating all the way back to 1997.
Hurricanes Blowing Through Competition as of Late
As I mentioned, Miami comes into this game with a different course of action, riding behind an offense that ranks in the top-20.
They are the 18th best in the nation in terms of efficiency, stemming from the 30th best effective FG%, the 6th best ball protection, and luckily for them, they score a multitude of their points inside the arc, seeing as the Iowa State defense is noticeably better defending shots from outside the arc.
Miami has also proven themselves more capable of playing under pressure, while they have played the easier schedule, they still played 11 teams that rank in the top-50 defensively and they are 9-2 against those 11 teams, including winning 9 of the last 10!
Not only have they performed better under pressure, but they are 15-5 away from their home court this season (while going 10-5 at home). The Hurricanes have won AND covered four of their last five games overall, and the offense has been hot, putting up 74 PPG, but they have needed it with a defense that has allowed nearly 70 PPG themselves.
Miami has also covered 9 of the last 12 games overall but they are just 9-20 ATS as a favorite in the last two seasons combined, but all you have to do in the tournament is win the game, and they are still winning those games on average by 4.1 PPG!
Come what may, Miami has covered 9 of the 10 games they have played on the road against teams over the .500 mark after 15+ games in the last 2 seasons, proving yet again, they can perform when it matters most.
Miami vs Iowa State Prediction
It is very easy to find yourself in the middle of this game, do the offense of Miami overpower the defense of Iowa State?
Does Iowa State continue their defensive dominance? Or do we see a Miami defense or Iowa State offense step-up to the plate?
I have been a firm believer that strength of schedule prepares you for these high pressure situations, but Miami has proven time and time again that they can perform under pressure, better then Iowa State has seemed to prior to the start of this tournament.
Pressure is the key word, and I am not talking about pressure defense. I can imagine Iowa State can slow them down, but I don’t think they can put a stop to this hurricane.
Prediction: Miami Hurricanes -2.5
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Miami vs Iowa State GoldSheet Preview
College Basketball Stat Sheet
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