Texas A&M vs Washington State: NIT Predictions and Betting Preview
Sportsmemo handicapper JM Sports gives his Texas A&M vs Washington State predictions and betting preview for the NIT on Tuesday, March 29. At the time of posting, the Aggies are favored by 2-points against the Cougars with the total sitting at 133.5 points.
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Tuesday, March 29 | NIT Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Texas A&M Aggies -2 vs Washington State Cougars |
Total: | 133.5 Points |
Game Time: | 9:30pm ET / 6:30pm PT |
Arena: | Madison Square Garden in New York, NY |
TV: | ESPN2 |
Texas A&M vs Washington State Analysis
Everyone’s attention always get directed to the “Big Dance” as we get into March, but this NIT Final Four match-up puts two teams that arguably could have been in March Madness without debate, and two teams that rank inside KenPom’s top-40 overall at this point in the season!
Texas A&M and Washington State have only played each other twice since 1997, they split the two meetings but Washington State covered both games against the spread (ATS).
While both teams have been impressive this season, they have both peaked at the right time and have made it this far in the tournament based on the fact that they have been able to perform under pressure and perform when it matters.
Texas A&M could potentially be without a big name with Marcus Williams facing possible disciplinary action in the biggest game of the season to date.
In a battle of two premier defenses, which team will have the offense that will step up to the plate and put in the necessary effort to put themselves in a position to compete for a NIT National Championship.
Texas A&M Defense vs. Washington State Offense
When you look at the Texas A&M defense this season, in efficiency they rank 31st in the country, which is better than 2 of the 4 teams remaining in March Madness (Washington State is above 2 of the 4 teams as well)!
They rank in the top third of most major defensive stats and they are going against a Washington State offense that has struggled at more than one point in this season.
The Aggies are 64th in effective FG% allowed, allowing teams to shoot just 47.4% on the season, which may make things even more difficult for a Washington State offense that is 263rd, posting just 48.1% effective FG% on the year.
Texas A&M is also a top-10 team in the nation in forcing turnovers, ranking 8th nationally in turnover %, while being the 3rd best team in the country in forcing steals! Although, while the Washington State offense has struggled, ball-control in something that they have thrived at.
If Texas A&M can create turnovers as well as they have this year, this will be lopsided game, but I do feel as though Washington State will have something to say about that as they have only lost more then 12 TO’s just 1 time since the start of February.
Where the struggles have lied for Washington State is shooting the ball, and that will not be any easier against this Texas A&M team.
The Aggies are 54th in the country defending the deep ball, allowing opponents to shoot just barely over 31%, and while they have been better defending the long ball, as opposed to defending opponents inside the arc, they are still holding opponents under 48% shooting, keeping themselves in the top-100 defending the 2PT shots.
This is perfect for A&M because Washington State is getting nearly 38% of their points from 3PT range (41st highest percentage in D1 ball), and they are in the bottom 20 getting just 43.7% of their points from inside the arc.
The Cougars are going to have to shoot better than their 46.2% average from 2PT range if they are going to be able to get the job done against Texas A&M.
This Texas A&M defense has played seven tournament games so far, and in those seven games, they have played six teams that rank in the top-100 offensively, and now they can add a 7th team to that list in the last eight games.
While the team started the season losing eight of the first 10 games against top-100 offenses, since February 15th, the Aggie’s defense has stepped up and has won eight of the last 10 games against such opponents.
Aggies Like to Spread it Out
When you look at these teams from a different perspective, Texas A&M has used their depth to compensate for the lack of height on their roster, and they needed to do whatever they could to come away with a season as impressive as this one while playing the 64th hardest schedule in the country.
The Aggies are 23rd in the nation in bench minutes, with over 40% of their minutes coming from players off the bench.
There are 10 players on the team that have appeared in over 25% of the teams minutes this year, sharing the time better than most teams, with 9 players appearing in over 30 games and possessing 9 players that have started over 10 games on the season.
The offensive rebounding statistics of this team also show the ability to share the love on this team, the active roster only has three players that are listed above 6 foot-6 inches, and just one player that ranks in the top-200 in offensive rebounding percentage, yet this team is 25th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage!
While the minutes and roles are dispersed, Wade Taylor and Quenton Jackson have been the most utilized shooters, putting up over 25% of the shots taken each while they are on the court, and Tyrece Radford being the go-to shooter for the limited 3PT shots that this team attempts and knocks down.
Wade Taylor and Quenton Jackson, are also the main contributors to the steal totals that has made this pressure defense so impressive, as well as Andre Gordon, all 3 of these players rank in the top-150 in the nation in steal percentage, coming together to create one of the biggest pressure defense threats in all of division-1 basketball.
Cougars Keep Playing Average Basketball
We already know that Washington State is in for a challenge in this game, this is just the 11th defense that they have played that ranks in the top-50 and compares with their own defense.
The Cougars started off the year with an impressive win against the 28th ranked defense in Arizona State, but since that game, they have gone 1-8 against those top-defensive units, losing all five games against teams that rank in the top-75 offensively & top-50 defensively.
Controlling the tempo has helped Washington State, especially being just around the middle of the pack when it comes to depth (bench minutes) and average height.
Washington State has utilized a multitude of players with eight players being used in over 19% of possessions when they are on the floor, but their ”three-headed monster” comes in the likes of Noah Williams, Michael Flowers and Tyrell Roberts, as they are the only three players that have appeared in over 60% of the teams minutes.
Efe Abogidi and Mouhamed Gueye have taken then lead as the big men on the team, with Efe leading the charge in the rebounding game, and both players doing their part to make Washington State as good of a blocking team as they are.
When it comes to shooting, there are a couple solid options on this team, which can make things difficult on a team, but A&M possesses the depth to cover all five guys that Washington State relies so heavily on.
Noah Williams, Michael Flowers, Tyrell Roberts and Tj Bamba are all taking over 20% of the teams shots that go up while they are on the court, but Mouhamed Gueye (19.2%) isn’t far outside that list, and is the biggest threat inside the arc.
Texas A&M vs Washington State Prediction
People wouldn’t be surprised when you say that this championship game is putting an SEC team up against a Pac-10 team, as they have been two of the best conferences in the nation this year, even if this is the NIT.
Washington State was handed an early exit from the Pac-12 tournament in a loss to UCLA, but they have only learned from that game and they continue to push in an effort to end this season with a championship, regardless of how the conference tournament ended.
Texas A&M was just one win away from winning the SEC tournament, knocking out two March Madness teams, including 6th seeded Alabama & 2nd seeded Auburn, before eventually losing to Tennessee, who entered the big dance as a 3 seed.
Texas A&M has played well under pressure, has played well to end the season, and has played noticeably more games against top-tier competition. Especially when it comes to playing top-tier defensive talent, and they have performed noticeably better on that side of the ball.
Prediction: Texas A&M Aggies -2
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Texas A&M vs Washington State GoldSheet Preview
College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Tuesday’s sheet, with notes on the Texas A&M vs Washington State contest.
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