Xavier vs St. Bonaventure: NIT Predictions and Betting Preview
Sportsmemo handicapper JM Sports gives his Xavier vs St. Bonaventure predictions and betting preview for the NIT on Tuesday, March 29. At the time of posting, the Bonnies are favored by 1.5-points against the Musketeers with the total sitting at 139.5 points.
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Tuesday, March 29 | NIT Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Xavier Musketeers +1.5 vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies |
Total: | 139.5 Points |
Game Time: | 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT |
Arena: | Madison Square Garden in New York, NY |
TV: | ESPN |
Xavier vs St. Bonaventure Analysis
This years NIT action has been exciting, and now this Final Four match-up puts two teams against each other that are outside the power-5 conferences.
While that is a little more common in the NIT tournament, just three of the final eight teams weren’t from the B10, Pac-10, SEC, ACC, or B12, in this years NCAA tournament, just 5 teams in the sweet-16 were outside the power 5 conferences, so this still isn’t exactly a common feat.
Two of those three NIT teams have now made it to the final four teams and we are guaranteed to see either St. Bonaventure (Atlantic-10) or Xavier (Big East) competing for the NIT championship on Thursday night!
These two teams have played more than most teams that square off in postseason tournament action, Xavier has won 15 of the 20 head-to-head match-ups dating back to 1996, covering 13 of the 19 lined games, but they haven’t played since 2013 when Xavier left the Atlantic-10 to head for the Big East.
Xavier Offense vs. St. Bonaventure Defense
Xavier has been an impressive offense this season, but there are a lot of question marks coming into this game with the loss of Paul Scruggs due to an ACL injury in their last game.
Xavier has ranked in the top-50 this season in offensive efficiency, but they are taking on a St. Bonaventure defense that isn’t a team to overlook with the 78th ranking in defensive efficiency.
The one issue with the Xavier offense is the fact that they aren’t the most well-rounded offense around, they have been one of the better teams in the country in terms of ball-security (63rd in TO% lost on the year), they get to the free throw line more than a good majority of teams in division-1 ball, and they know how to score inside the arc (shooting 52% from 2PT range).
When you look at the distribution of points for the Musketeers, just 27% of their points come from 3PT range, while 52.8% of their points come from inside the side, and the remaining 20% of the points come from the free throw line (62nd most in the nation), even though they are shooting just 70.2% from the charity stripe.
Although, the Bonnie’s defense is 17th in the nation when to it comes to putting the opponent on the line, playing hard but playing smart, and they may just be middle-of-the-pack when it comes to defending shots inside the paint, they are noticeably better defending the 2PT shots then they are when it comes to covering the deep ball.
What is surprising when it comes to the Xavier offense is the fact that their impressive height is what has helped them put up points from inside the arc, but this team ranks just 152nd in offensive rebounding percentage and 211th when it comes to getting blocked.
Not to mention, they are in the bottom 125 when it comes to steal percentage offensively. While St. Bonaventure has ranked well in those aspects, the height of this Xavier team is more than this guard heavy team is used to.
St. Bonaventure Offense vs. Xavier Defense
This is where the Xavier height really comes into play, especially when the 4 main contributors for the St. Bonaventure team are all 6-foot-5 or shorter.
Although, their lack of height hasn’t really been much of a factor this season, St. Bonaventure ranks 73rd in offensive efficiency, but they are one of the best teams in the nation in ball-security (36th in D-1 ball).
There are only 30 teams in the country that get blocked at a lower rate, and just 37 teams that get the ball stolen at a lower rate then these Bonnie’s, regardless of the fact that their 7 main contributors are just over 6-foot-5 on average.
For Xavier, steals and blocks are what they are best at, as well as preventing free throw opportunities, but St. Bonaventure doesn’t prioritize the charity stripe anyways.
When it comes to scoring, these guards love to take the ball inside, Jalen Adaway is the only major contributor that is shooting over 37% from 3PT range, but he has attempted just 105 3’s this year (3rd on the team), while Dominick Welch has attempted 233 3PT shots, and is shooting 36.1%.
That is part of the reason that they prioritize the inside game, with the shifty guards and the sole two big men all capable of playing inside, four of those six players are shooting over 50% from 2PT distance.
St. Bonaventure is the exact opposite of Xavier when it comes to free throws, Xavier gets the line very frequently, but statistically doesn’t shoot well from the line, Bonaventure on the other hand, gets to the line at a rate that is in the bottom 75 nationally.
They are in the top-75 though when it comes to FT%, good thing for Xavier is they are usually smart about the fouls, but who knows when you have this fast guards circling Nunge.
Only 16.3% of their points from the free throw line (264th in the nation) and only 25.7% of their points come from beyond the arc (313th in the nation), that leaves over 58% of their points coming from 2PT range, impressive from a team of guards.
Musketeers Play to Their Height
I have mentioned it more then once above, but it this game continues to come back to one big factor, the height of Xavier.
Four of the major contributors on this Xavier team are 6-foot-8 or taller, and those contributors are going to be even more essential to this team now. There is no question that this offensive unit of Xavier was mainly led by 3 players, Paul Scruggs, Jack Nunge, and Colby Jones.
Luckily for Xavier, they haven’t played since last Tuesday, that may have been a necessity, now more then ever. We can imagine what kind of changes had to be made at practice this week, teams don’t anticipate making changes like that in the Final Four of the postseason tournament, but teams also don’t anticipate losing their star player in a situation like this.
Scruggs was on the court more then anyone this season, other then Colby Jones, he was one of just two players to start 33 (of the 34) games for Xavier and he led the team in assist percentage and steal percentage, for a Xavier team that assisted on over 56% of their FG’s (57th best rate in the country) and they were a top-70 team in steal percentage.
So this team is in “next man up mentality”, if Xavier can get the win, Jack Nunge is a name to watch. Even though Nunge has started just 17 games this season, that is mainly due to the fact that Nunge was a transfer from Iowa, and that Big 10 experience could be vital as Nunge could be looked at as one of the guys to take the reigns leading this game for the next game (or potentially two games).
Nunge is a bulk of the height on this roster as 7-foot big man, but he can really do it all. Nunge has appeared in over 65% of Xavier’s minutes this year, even when he came off the bench, he is 36th nationally in offensive rating, which comes from the fact that he is so well rounded.
He’s nationally ranked in effective FG % – 60% (68th in the country), in true shooting % – 63% (53rd in the country), in 2PT% – 62.5% (88th in the country), and he is 61st nationally for the rate he gets to the foul line. Nunge is also one of the best ball handlers as a big man, ranking 64th in the country in turnover rate (that is all qualifying players, guards included) and he is the 2nd best three point shooter on the team!
Not to mention that Nunge has the 4th most 3PT attempts on the team, so that shooting percentage from deep is no fluke that could potentially be due to minimal attempts.
Plus, I don’t think it needs to be mentioned that the 7-foot big man is by far the best rebounder on the team. Colby Jones will be the other main guy that will need to fill Scruggs shoes.
Colby Jones is the only other player (besides Scruggs) to start 33 (of the 34) games for Xavier this year, and he was on the court more then anyone.
Jones is the 2nd best offensive rebounder on the team at just 6-foot-6 and he also finds his was to the FT more then most players (59th ranking in FTA rate nationally), but a 68.3% FT% may not cut it.
Adam Kunkel and Dwon Odom are the next two guards up, Kunkel is a senior and his experience may help, but the questions looms, are Scruggs’ shoes too big to fill?
Bonnies Rely Solely On Starters
Just as height was the key for Xavier, height is also a key to the Bonnie’s, but height is just a chip on the shoulder that has driven this team all year.
These guards all are capable of playing at big name schools, and they have shown that this season, but the lack of height is what potentially could have held them back all their lives, and it is hard to believe that they are going to let that stop them now.
This team has played a slightly easier schedule than Xavier this year, but by no means was the schedule easy. They have controlled the tempo of their games and the experience on the team has all but compensated for the height and the depth issues.
Even more impressive than the questions surrounding height, is the fact that this St. Bonaventure team has accomplished all they have this season with basically five guys!
They rank DEAD last in bench minutes, with 91% of their minutes this season being played by starters! They are led by their 4 guard tandem, Jaren Holmes, Dominick Welch, Jalen Adaway and Kyle Lofton.
Even though Kyle Lofton had a small stint with injury concerns, all 4 of those guys rank in the top 80 in the nation in percentage of team minutes played!
Jaren Holmes was on the court for 94.5% of St. Bonaventure’s minutes (4th most in the nation), Dominick Welch was on for 93.3% of minutes (7th in the nation), Jalen Adaway was out there for 91.6% of the team’s minutes (14th in the country) and Kyle Lofton, despite injury, was still on the court for 86.7% of the team’s minutes (77th in the country).
Those four players combined for 73% of the total floor time for St. Bonaventure, with Osun Osunniyi being the most common player to join them on the court, playing 73.5% of the teams minutes.
This means those five players alone played 88.28% of the teams minutes! Abdoul Karim Coulibaly has shared the other time at the 5th spot, but he was on the court for less then 24% of the teams minutes, and started just a single game, with Quarry Adams and Linton Brown accounting for the rest of the starts, four combined games, mainly due to injury.
You would think that this would lead to fatigue, but they have done it game after game and done it well!
Xavier vs St. Bonaventure Prediction
Xavier has one big question mark, who will replace Scruggs? That is a lot of production, heart and leadership to replace, and height alone may not be enough.
St. Bonaventure may have two question marks, in height and depth, but they have given us 23 reasons that they are going to win, and just 9 reasons to believe that those question marks are an issue, as they have dominated the entire season, resulting in that 23-9 record.
The Bonnie’s have had all year to figure out a solution to their problem, Xavier has had 6 days. I am rolling Bonnies & the under.
Prediction: St. Bonaventure -1.5
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Xavier vs St. Bonaventure GoldSheet Preview
College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Tuesday’s sheet, with notes on the Xavier vs St. Bonaventure contest.
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