New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Predictions, Picks and Odds
The New York Mets won 100 games this season, yet they lost the NL East and are set to host the Padres (89-72) in a best-of-three series.
San Diego won the season series 4-2 against New York this year and they actually had a better record (45-36) on the road.
New York (53-27) dominated at home this season and they need to recover from blowing the NL East title. Eric Pauly gives his National League Wild Card round preview between the Mets and Padres.
New York Mets Betting Preview
Proj. Starters for NYM: Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt
The Mets suffered another Mets-like collapse this season and they lost the NL East because of it. However, this team has arguably the best starting pitching staff in baseball and they will need to carry this team to victory against San Diego.
New York’s pitchers finished 5th in WAR, 5th in FIP, 7th in WHIP, but 24th in batting average on balls in play. Their bullpen finished 10th in ERA and 9th in WHIP this season. Edwin Diaz was also the best closer in baseball this season and he should be a major factor in this series.
The Mets’ offense was good this year and they did not rely on the long ball whatsoever. New York finished 16th in home runs but 4th in offensive WAR, 3rd in wRC+, 7th in batting average on balls in play, and 6th in weighted on-base average.
Since Starling Marte went down, New York has struggled offensively, so they need their bats to wake up in order to compete with the Padres’ starting pitching.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Proj. Starters for SD: Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove
The Padres have done a lot to strengthen their roster before the season and at the deadline, and one of their strengths is their starting pitching.
The Padres finished 10th in FIP, 9th in WHIP, 9th in batting average on balls in play, and 7th in WAR. Their bullpen finished 14th in ERA and 8th in WHIP this season.
Offensively, the Padres lineup is stacked, but they were not the juggernauts they were made out to be. San Diego finished 12th in wRC+, 11th in WAR, 15th in weighted on-base average, and 18th in batting average on balls in play. San Diego needs Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Luke Voit to step up their offense behind Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth.
New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction
The Mets have arguably the two best pitchers in the entire MLB, and they need their aces to shine in order to win this series. deGrom and Scherzer both looked human in their final outings of 2022, but both of these pitchers know what it takes to win in the playoffs.
This is a huge edge that the Mets have and they need their offense to wake up so they do not waste the inevitable great outings from these starters.
On the flip side, the Padres starters have carries this team and now their offense needs to wake up. The Padres starters have punched above their weight class all year and their offense has generally been disappointing. Their lineup is chock full of big names, but these big-time players need to make big-time plays.
This is a spot for the Mets to show they are real. They need to win two games at home with two aces and they are on to the next round. I like the Mets to come back to form and remind everyone why they lead the NL East for 170 games this season. These Mets are for real
Prediction: New York Mets to win the series -175
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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