Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Betting Preview
Monday night, the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the 4-6 New Orleans Saints. Will the Saints steal a win and take first place in the NFC South? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Week 13 betting pick.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Week 13 Betting Odds
Monday, December 5 | Week 13 NFL Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs New Orleans Saints |
Total: | o/u 41 Points |
Location: | Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL |
Game Time: | 8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | ESPN |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis
Since Tom Brady decided to play in Tampa Bay, New Orleans has been a significant thorn in his side. The Buccaneers beat the Saints 20-10 in Week 2, and this was the first time Brady beat the Saints since coming to Tampa.
The Buccaneers lead the NFC South with a 5-6 record, and the Saints are in last place with a 4-8 record. If the Saints can beat the Buccaneers, Tampa will still be in first place, but the Saints will be back in the race. This should be an exciting game tonight.
Tampa Needs Running Game To Succeed
The Buccaneers have had a down season this year, and it is not hard to see why. Tampa had dealt with a ton of injuries to its offensive line, and they have been incapable of making Tom Brady feel comfortable.
Also, Todd Bowles is cementing himself as one of the worst coaches in football. Tampa is still in the top 10 in total DVOA, but this is a broken team.
On offense, Brady has actually been good, but the Buccaneers have no run game, no tight end, and the worst offensive line this team has had since Brady came to Tampa. Tampa is last in the NFL in yards per carry, and Brady is just 18th in net yards per attempt.
On a per-drive basis, the Buccaneers are 28th in time, 10th in plays, 21st in yards, and 27th in points. This is very concerning. This team also does not convert well on third down or in the red zone. No wonder this Buccaneers team is 27th in points for this season.
The Buccaneers’ defense has been good, but they have struggled to stop the runs. Opposing running backs average 4.6 yards per attempt against Tampa. This team holds opposing passers to 5.3 net yards per attempt, but they cannot hold back opposing running backs.
On a per-drive basis, the Buccaneers are 18th in time, 6th in plays, 7th in yards, and 7th in points. This unit is still playing great, but this is not the same Bucs team from the past two seasons.
Saints Falling Fast
The Saints have had a whirlwind of a season, and they have been starting Andy Dalton when it was assumed that Jameis Winston would be their quarterback. This Saints team has struggled offensively, and that has been a problem.
On offense, the Saints are 20th in the NFL in points for and 15th in yards for. However, on a per-drive basis, this team is 25th in drive time, 27th in plays, 18th in yards, and 19th in points.
The Saints struggle to move the ball efficiently and score points when it matters. Dalton is 9th in the NFL in net yards per attempt, and this team is 15th in yards per carry, but this offense still leaves a lot to be desired.
The Saints defense has been a bright spot in the past, but they have regressed this season. On a per-drive basis, the Saints are 22nd in time, 18th in plays, 11th in yards, and 15th in points.
New Orleans holds opposing passers down, but their run defense is not as good as it was in the past. The Saints have a top-3 red zone defense, and this masks some of their issues, but they will need to be better in the middle eight to beat the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction
The way the Buccaneers are playing now, it is hard to see them as a favorite in any game this season. Especially when they are facing a team that knows them inside and out.
The Buccaneers beat the Saints earlier this season, but this was when they were healthy. Both teams are dealing with injuries, but the Saints are healthier than the Buccaneers.
I have to take the points with the Saints here. In a must-win game for New Orleans, I expect them to come out swinging and potentially pull off the win.
Prediction: New Orleans Saints +3
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 13
Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints in Week 13 among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 13 games, including this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints showdown, from your desktop or phone.
**************************************************
Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Free NFL Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!