NFL Week 14 Betting Preview
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, SuperBook Sports releases their look-ahead lines for the following week, about 10-12 days before those games kick-off. Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly offers his analysis of the NFL Week 14 opening lines, and what bettors should be watching for in this weekend’s games.
NFL Week 14 as of Thursday, December 1 | Courtesy of SuperBook Sports |
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Las Vegas Raiders -5.5 at Los Angeles Rams | o/u 42 |
Minnesota Vikings -3 at Detroit Lions | o/u 51.5 |
New York Jets +9 at Buffalo Bills | o/u 44 |
Baltimore Ravens -4.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers | o/u 40.5 |
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 at New York Giants | o/u 43 |
Cleveland Browns +4 at Cincinnati Bengals | o/u 48.5 |
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 at Tennessee Titans | o/u 42.5 |
Houston Texans +14 at Dallas Cowboys | o/u 47.5 |
Miami Dolphins PK at Los Angeles Chargers | o/u 51.5 |
Carolina Panthers +7 at Seattle Seahawks | o/u 43.5 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 at San Francisco 49ers | o/u 41 |
Kansas City Chiefs -6 at Denver Broncos | o/u 42 |
New England Patriots -2 at Arizona Cardinals | o/u 44 |
Using NFL Look-Ahead Lines
Every week, before I look at the spreads and totals for the upcoming week, I set my own spreads and totals based on my power rankings so I can compare them to the SuperBook’s lines.
This process is a great exercise for both professional and new bettors, and I recommend all NFL bettors attempt to set their own lines. Taking these steps allows me to check the strength of my power ratings, find edges, and build an understanding of how the market views each team from week to week.
After that week’s games are completed, I readjust my spreads and totals based on the new information from that past week, then I compare these numbers to the updated spreads and totals for that week.
Using that information, I have a picture painted of where I thought spreads and total should sit in the first place if I believe these numbers will rise or fall, and if I have an edge over the market or if I am completely mispriced compared to the market.
NFL Week 14 Odds Analysis
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams
My Projections: Las Vegas -6, O/U 44
SuperBook Look-ahead: Las Vegas -5.5, O/U 42
I was close to the spread and the total here, but I can see this total rising. Yes, the Rams are the most injured team and are missing all their weapons, but they still play hard, and the Raiders’ defense is not great. The spread, I think, will remain the same, but I can see this total creeping up higher as the game gets closer.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
My Projections: Minnesota -3.5, O/U 50
SuperBook Look-ahead: Minnesota -3, O/U 51.5
I was close to the total and the spread here and I do not expect a ton of movement. I would believe that this spread would be closer to mine. Both of these teams are flawed, but the Vikings are better, so I believe the spread of 3 will have the hook attached to it.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
My Projections: Buffalo -7.5, O/U 44
SuperBook Look-ahead: Buffalo -9, O/U 44
I was on point with the total but off on the spread. This one confuses me. The Jets beat the Bills convincingly, and with a worse quarterback, not too long ago. I get this time, the game is in Buffalo, but still, this makes no sense to me, and I can only see this line coming down.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
My Projections: Baltimore -5, O/U 41
SuperBook Look-ahead: Baltimore -4.5, O/U 40.5
I was within a half point of the spread and total here, and I think this game is priced accurately. These two teams always play well against each other, and I understand why the spread is close and why the total is so low. I do not anticipate much movement.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
My Projections: Philadelphia -6.5, O/U 43.5
SuperBook Look-ahead: Philadelphia -6, O/U 43
Again, I was within a half-point on the spread and the total here. I think this game is priced properly, and I do not expect big changes barring injury. The Eagles are certainly around a touchdown better than the Giants, and there should be minimal movement.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
My Projections: Cincinnati -3, O/U 47
SuperBook Look-ahead: Cincinnati -4, O/U 48.5
At the moment, it is almost impossible to price Browns’ games. Is Watson rusty? How will the offense work with him in the mix? Will he help their struggling defense? Is he generating more EPA per play than Brissett? There are too many questions and not enough answers. I will not be shocked by anything this line does.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
My Projections: Tennessee -3, O/U 44
SuperBook Look-ahead: Tennessee -3.5, O/U 42.5
I was close with the spread here and slightly off on the total. Jacksonville may be the more talented team, but the Titans just find ways to win. I expect this total to come up slightly. These teams can be solid on offense when they need to be, and I think there will be more touchdowns than anticipated.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys
My Projections: Dallas -13, O/U 46
SuperBook Look-ahead: Dallas -14, O/U 47.5
The Texans are dead and Dallas being two touchdown favorites is inconsequential. Houston will be able to run on Dallas, so maybe this number is too high, but this is not a marquee game on the Week 14 slate.
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers
My Projections: Miami -2.5, O/U 50
SuperBook Look-ahead: Miami PK, O/U 51.5
This is an interesting matchup, and I am shocked not to see Miami as the favorite. While these offenses are great, these defenses arent, specifically the Chargers’ defense. Miami can run the ball down their throat and control the clock. I expect Miami to reopen as short favorites.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
My Projections: Seattle -6, O/U 43
SuperBook Look-ahead: Seattle -7, O/U 43.5
I was on point with the total and slightly off on the spread. Either way this game breaks down, Seattle is a great teaser leg in Week 14. I do not expect this number to move all the way up to 9 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
My Projections: San Franscico -6.5, O/U 42
SuperBook Look-ahead: San Francisco -6, O/U 41
I was close on the total and the spread, and I do not expect much movement in either of these. The Buccaneers offensive line is still in shambles, and their coaching is horrendous. The 49ers look like the best team in the NFC, and it is not shocking to see them lay 6 at home.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
My Projections: Kansas City -6, O/U 44
SuperBook Look-ahead: Kansas City -6.5, O/U 42
I was close with the spread and slightly off on the total. The Broncos are dead in the water, but Mile High is still a tough place to play. The Broncos said they will not be making a QB change so unless Russell Wilson somehow finds his old form, he will still be almost a touchdown underdog at home.
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
My Projections: New England -3, O/U 42
SuperBook Look-ahead: New England -2, O/U 44
I was slightly off on both the spread and total here. This spread will change drastically if Murray is not playing, but at the moment, there is no reason to believe he will not be. New England certainly is the better team, but they struggle with running quarterbacks, so their being just slight road favorites makes sense.
Interested in placing a bet on the NFL Week 14 point spreads or totals? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 risk-free bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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