Miami Heat
Heat/Celtics Game 1 Winner
Game 581
10:00 am pst/1:00 pm est
Sometimes things can look too good to be true. And I believe that is the case in this matchup. The Boston Celtics are the number one seed in the Eastern Conference, are playing at home where they finished the season 37-4, and are the healthier team in this matchup. They've also taken six of the last seven meetings straight up. However, sports betting is not about which team wins, it is about which team covers. The Miami Heat have covered four of the last five meetings in this Eastern Conference rivalry. Yes, they are a little banged up, and yes, they are a visitor here. While the Celtics are a phenomenal team, particularly at the TD Garden, oddsmakers tend to overvalue them. They've only covered two of their last six games on their home floor while the Heat have covered six in a row on the road. Going back to being overvalued, as a double-digit favorite, Boston has only covered one of the last five in that situation. I just think this is way too many points to give a very scrappy, a very competitive, Miami team. Play the Heat.