FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE TOP PITCHER PROP I – Seth Lugo Strikeouts Thrown Over 4.5 (-130) | Lugo must start and throw at least one pitch for the proposition to have action.
2% prop rating
Starting Pitchers: Lugo must start and throw at least one pitch for the proposition to have action.
Home Plate Umpire: C.B. Buchnor is pitcher-friendly. The longtime MLB veteran is scheduled to work his 467th career home plate assignment in Game 1 of a three-game set between American League Central rivals Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers. Buchnor offers pitchers a 15 percent boost above their strikeouts per nine innings on game day and ranks in the Top-25 of active umpires in Walks allowed and Runs Per Game.
Venue: Comerica Park
Weather: Cloudy skies hover over Detroit, Michigan for the early contest on the Friday Night Baseball Betting Board. First-pitch temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s with no precipitation while a stiff ESE wind blows between 10-15 mph (in from left-centerfield).
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In one of their biggest tests this season with a chance at winning a series against the Orioles, the Royals went out quietly on Sunday afternoon in their 5-0 loss at Kauffman Stadium. Starter Seth Lugo snapped two streaks, allowing his first two homers of the year and not recording a quality start for the first time this season, and the Royals offense was shut out for the first time in 2024.
The second series loss to the Orioles this year and a 2-4 record against the reigning American League East champions was a reminder that much more has to go right if Kansas City is to compete against the best teams in the league in 2024. The Orioles outscored the Royals in the season series, 29-27, and walked them off twice in the series in Baltimore earlier this month.
The strength of the Royals through the first month of the 2024 campaign has been the starting pitching. Veteran Seth Lugo has been one of those Kansas City starters. His last turn in the rotation came against a good Baltimore Orioles squad. The start was less successful than it needed to be for Lugo to help his teammates secure the victory. Lugo allowed four runs in 5.1 innings of work. The veteran righthander scattered nine hits and struck out only one against one walk.
The matchup against the Birds at Camden Yards raised his ERA almost a run from 1.05 to 2.03. Lugo’s FIP of 3.94 and xFIP of 4.85 shows that Lugo has been the beneficiary of some good fortune. The primary fortune in Lugo's numbers has been two starts against the Chicago White Sox. Lugo has pitched well below a number of his career numbers through five starts. While his BB/9 of 2.03 offers evidence he is commanding his arsenal his 4.06 K/9 is an indicator that he hasn’t missed enough bats to continue with his current slash line. Lugo has a career K/9 of 8.92.
Lugo's SwStr% is at 7.8% but a start against a free-swinging Detroit Tigers lineup offers the righty a chance to find his swinging strike numbers climb. Lugo's swing and miss metrics have dropped each season since 2020 when he sported a 13.6%.
The 33-year-old had not been a regular starting pitcher since 2017 when he was a member of the Mets and last season's work as a part of the Padres organization found him starting the second half of the season. Heading into one of his final starts, and early September event vs the San Francisco Giants Lugo tossed six shutout frames and it led to the 33-year-old owning a 6-6 record with a 3.59/3.68 ERA/xFIP in a career-high 121.1 innings. Lugo is on pace to surpass that mark this season with the Royals and while his early returns are the result of some good fortune that four-leaf clover continues to hold serve when the Royals and Lugo square off against Olsen and the Tigers.
Lugo and the Royals should be the favorite in this early Friday matchup. The combination of pitcher-friendly home plate umpire Buchnor, a 10-15 mph wind blowing in from left-centerfield, and a Tigers lineup that isn't the most disciplined in pitch selection at the plate offer Lugo a five-strikeout start today in Comerica.
Kansas City Royals +107 | List Lugo and Olson