FINNs NATIONAL LEAGUE TOP ~ TICKET TOTAL I - Washington at Miami Total Under 8.5 (-115) | List Corbin and Weathers | The over-under position in this National League Top of the Ticket investment is good Under 8.5 with the juice of -120 or less.
3% game rating
Starting Pitchers: List Corbin and Weathers
Home Plate Umpire: Mark Wegner is not the perfect umpire for today's matchup as he has a hitter-friendly lean in most of his home plate assignments. However, the veteran will work his 441st assignment behind the dish and he has a reputation of not missing his Sunday plane home – meaning Getaway Day assignments find Wegner's Kzone larger than any other game day or game night during the season.
Venue: loanDepot park
Weather: The loanDepot park roof is expected to be closed due to the cloudy conditions, high winds, and the likelihood of a brief shower on a warm Maimi afternoon. No announcement has been made but my choice would be for the roof to be open today. The wind conditions would assist our play Under the Total.
Neither of the pitchers is reliable in reasonable circumstances but today's meeting offers offensive negatives that will collectively contribute to holding serve in a low-scoring event. Corbin's decline began long before what he is today as a starting option for any team, likely the only team that would offer the opportunity, his current club, Washington. While Corbin is only 34 physical regression began in the COVID era, in 2020. Taking Corbin's recent history and his skill set transition from prime to the 2023 campaign expecting an ERA right at 5.00 with a WHIP that ranges from 1.40-1.45 and a K-Rate of 7.5% is reasonable. Corbin isn't going to survive too many afternoon matchups with the Braves or the Dodgers but he certainly isn't afraid to tangle with either of the offensive powers in the National League.
The veteran lefty with a World Series ring to his credit gave the Nationals their longest outing by a starter in the first week of April in a 4-0 loss to division rival Philadelphia.
You want to know how much Corbin is respected in the league, or with his Skipper or his teammates?
“I’ve been with Patrick for a very long time, and he’s our guy,” manager Dave Martinez told the media following the loss to the Phils. “Regardless of what happens, he’s going to give everything for as long as he can -- and I know that.”
Corbin struck out six while allowing four runs on nine hits and three walks, all while keeping his pitch count to 93 (65 strikes). Despite giving up three runs in the second inning, he followed with four scoreless frames to give his team a chance to make a comeback. He threw 93 pitches in six-plus innings before Jordan Weems was called from the bullpen.
The Miami Marlins own the second-worst OPS versus LHP this season. The only club with a lower number is the Chicago White Sox. The Marlins are slashing a .199/252/.275 with a 527 OPS vs Southpaws.
Miami hands the ball to lefthander Ryan Weathers who most recently has exceeded five innings of work in his last two turns. Weathers faced off against the Giants at loanDepot tossing six innings of five-hit and two-run baseball. Weather struck out 10 against just one walk in the 6-3 victory. He followed that solid start with a 3-0 loss to the Braves in which he tossed 5.2 frames allowing three earned runs and striking out just one while walking three.
Weather is just one of the long list of pitchers in the league who are discounting the four-seam delivery. Weather used his fastball third-most the loss to the Braves. His top two pitches, those with the top pair of usage numbers were his Sweeper and Changeup.
The approach makes sense, The Sweeper collected 45% Whiffs and the Changeup collected 64%.
I would be the first to state in upper-case letters that the usage chart is not sustainable but I can't and I won't. The change is coming and if you are not aware of it start taking some time to look at pitching charts.
Weather is going to repeat his usage of pitch type, this is a given. What is not repeatable is the likely number of Whiffs on secondaries across six innings, especially since Weather has never been a strikeout guy - past, present, or in the future. But the time period of change that is taking place is upon us and unusual situations typically end with unusual results.
I am not suggesting that you run out and buy stock in Weathers.
No.
I am, however, suggesting that the matchup today between Washington (.212/.282/.335) and Miami (.199/252/.275) whose slash lines versus Southpaws make for a probable game in which both struggle vs lefties and the two southpaw starters have more success than expected.
Washington at Miami Total Under 8.5 (-115) | List Corbin and Weathers