FINNs NBA EAST TOURNEY SAME-GAME PARLAY II – Finn's DKs 5-Pick SGP: Indiana Pacers Alternate Spread -4 / Bucks at Pacers Alternate Total Over 214 / Pascal Siakam Alt Points 20+ / Myles Turner Alt Points 20+ / Myles Turner Alt Blocks 2+ | +950
Every 1% / 1 unit invested in this SGP the return is +950
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN
Referees: Yet to be announced
Milwaukee Bucks Starting Lineup
PG -- P. Beverley
SG -- Malik Beasley
SF -- K. Middleton (ankle/probable)
PF -- Bobby Portis
C -- Brook Lopez
Bucks Injuries
F -- K. Middleton (ankle/probable)
F -- G. Antetokounmpo (calf/out)
G -- D. Lillard (Achilles/out)
F -- C. Livingston (illness/out)
Indiana Pacers Starting Lineup
PG - T. Haliburton
SG - A. Nembhard
SF - Aaron Nesmith
PF - Pascal Siakam
C -- Myles Turner
Pacers Injuries
No injuries to report
The Bucks’ three best players were listed on the injury report since the Pacers earned a Game 3 win in Indianapolis. There has been little doubt that Giannis would not play and Lillard's availability has been doubtful by most who understand the dynamics of the point guard. As Milwaukee prepared for Game 4 today the more one saw, read, and heard from reliable sources the more the game played out. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Khris Middleton, all found the injury report however it was only Middleton who was expected to dress and play.
Antetokounmpo started the playoffs, the 1st Round matchup against the Packers on the injury report with a left soleus (calf) strain, which he suffered on April 9 against the Boston Celtics. Following the team’s film session on Saturday, Bucks head coach Doc Rivers told reporters Saturday was an off day for Antetokounmpo and that the Bucks’ two-time NBA MVP forward would “go hard early, and then we’re going to decide that” on Sunday.
Rivers admitted he doubted Antetokounmpo would be able to work early on Sunday and then be cleared to play in Game 4, but this is something he knew, most understood, before Game 3 even played out.
Lillard joined the injury report on Saturday with a right Achilles strain he suffered on one of the final plays of the fourth quarter of the Bucks’ 121-118 Game 3 overtime loss. When the Bucks were working the media session following the Game 3 overtime loss it was Dame that said the most without being at the podium or even opening his mouth. Lillard made his way out of the locker room, and headed to the hotel and in doing so slowly strolled by reporters in a walking boot on his right foot.
The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported Lillard suffered an Achilles injury without guessing or going any further on the likelihood of Lillard's status moving forward. The injury was the same injury that Lillard had suffered last year when he stumbled through parts of the season until missing a large part of the latter stages. The injury then was listed as Achilles tendinitis.
Middleton is playing. He was on the injury report before Game 3 tipped off and found a way to score 42 points in 41 minutes of action of Game 3 on Friday. Do not believe anything in terms of Middleton not playing tonight. He will play but will it be enough and is he able to play to the level he played on Friday?
If the Bucks are going to pull off what would be a significant flip-flop of the point-spread tonight it will be more about the Pacers than it will be about the "next man up" for the Bucks.
The Bucks have been a defensive liability the entire season, when healthy, and when shorthanded. In Game 3 Milwaukee surrendered 32 second-chance points and 19 offensive rebounds to a Pacers team that do not outrebound their opponents often, in wins or losses.
Offensively, without Dame and Giannis this Bucks team is not only less than offensively, but they are equally less-than-average defensively.
The Bucks outplayed the Pacers for the final three quarters of Game 3 but it came after the Pacers destroyed Dame and company in the first 12 minutes ... and it was with Dame on the floor. Tonight they won't have Dame or the Freak.
Rivers told the media following the game that he understood what the Pacers were doing to disrupt the offense, “We got into everything that we wanted. We ran our stuff. Our guys finally realized, ‘OK. It’s pressure. That’s it.’ We handled it. I thought the first nine minutes of the game, they rushed us. We were breaking every set. We couldn’t even run a set. "
What the Pacers did well on Friday night was force Milwaukee to take the wrong shot in their half-court sets. It wasn't difficult until the Bucks made adjustments and did so with the experience and savvy of Dame. That will not be available tonight with Lillard out.
Unless the Bucks lay down and hope for a poor shooting night from Indiana and slow the tempo of the game the Pacers will do as they please. As much as it is easy for me to write that Milwaukee could or should slow the pace it is much more difficult for the Bucks to pull it off ... especially since it is not what they did the entire season and don't want to do, not when they are healthy at least.
The Pacers will;
1) take advantage of poor or the wrong shot of the Bucks and morph into offensive transition for easy buckets.
2) the Bucks do not have the ability at the point without Lillard to operate the offense in halfcourt to take the correct shot and prevent transition opportunities for the Pacers. Shooting for a high percentage, and making shots, is the best defense for Milwaukee and one they have used throughout the season -- because this is not a good defensive squad with Lillard and/or Giannis.
3) the Pacers will utilize the frontcourt tonight in every phase of the game. No team in the Association takes more shots in the paint and at the rim than the Pacers. I expect a big game from Miles Turner, both on offense and defense. His rim protection against what figures to find a large number of the Bucks attacking the rim presents shot-block opportunities for Turner and his frontcourt mates.
The veteran presence of Connaughton, an experienced Buck who has been with the team longer than any other current player, will lead the pack at attacking the rim, with fullback-like drives in the paint.
There seems to be a misunderstanding among writers and even NBA pundits concerning Middleton tonight. The Pacers are not going to change anything from what worked on Friday, including allowing Middleton to work in the paint. The Bucks shooting forward played 41 minutes injured on Friday and to a man, that I shared info with, none believe that Middleton can repeat or even perform at a high level for 30 minutes tonight, let alone 41 minutes as was the case in Game 3.
Without Antetokounmpo and Lillard expect the Bucks to use on-ball screens and cut more than just one in pick and roll-like scheme and again, attack the rim.
The Pacers will make Middleton make a decision or two tonight. They will respect his ability off the dribble and force difficult passes inside for what might appear to be easy buckets but the athletic and capable Miles Turner will be there to mush any success the Bucks believe is sustainable.
Rivers told reporters after the game on Saturday he believed the Pacers’ pressure forced the Bucks to post Portis up on the “wrong” side, the right block, far too often in Game 3. And that along with being more purposeful with their own play in the second half, Portis also slowed down.
“It was not us getting him going; more, he just settled down,” Rivers said of Portis’ play in the second half. “Bobby was going really fast at the beginning of the game, for whatever reason. The pressure kind of pushed us. But once he settled down and got into Bobby’s pace, I think Bobby is unguardable. I’ve told him that multiple times in timeouts. And then once he started to do it, he saw it. So he’ll be a better Bobby tomorrow.”
Expect Rivers and the coaching staff of the Bucks to leverage Middleton and Portis correctly and create shots that are high percentages for both.
Getting shots against the Pacers isn't difficult... it is consistently making them and consistently thwarting the offensive transition of the Pacers.
The lack of depth of the Bucks makes this game a second-half run away and hide for Indiana ... all they need to do is be smart and listen to a Hall of Fame head coach ... and take a commanding 3-1 series lead into Game 5 .... at Gainbridge.
Finn's DKs 5-Pick SGP Outline
1st Leg: Indiana Pacers Alternate Spread -4
2nd Leg: Bucks at Pacers Alternate Total Over 214
3rd Leg: Pascal Siakam Alt Points 20+
4th Leg: Myles Turner Alt Points 20+
5th Leg: Myles Turner Alt Blocks 2+
Every 1% / 1 unit invested returns +950