(557) Boston Celtics at (558) Miami Heat
5% Total Over 203.0 (-110)
So far in this series, we have seen the total go under twice and over once as we head into game 4. The big difference with GM 3 was two fold. 1) Both teams came out and scored a combined 33 points in the first quarter, which put the over behind the 8 ball. 2) Both teams shot below their 3PT average for the season. Boston is the #2 3PT shooting team in the NBA while Miami is 12th. There is not much separating 2nd and 12th as Boston is at 38.8 and Miami is 37.1. Both teams were at 32% in GM 3. Miami is trying to stay in it by trying to slow the pace, but at the end of the day it is just not going to work against the 2nd highest scoring team in the NBA averaging over 120 PPG. I expect Miami to come out punching in GM 4, and after a 12 point first quarter in the last game, I expect Spoelstra to put more emphasis on the Heat getting their offense in gear. Going back to last season these two have played 8 out of the last 10 to over the total, and 203 is the lowest total of any of the games. This could be Miami's last home game of the season, and they are going to want to give a much better effort then they did on Saturday. The Celtics are not going to want to give the Heat any thoughts of making this a series, so look for another strong effort. I anticipated this number coming out @ 206 which would have had me on the over as well. Look for this game to land in the 210-215 range, and over the total is the play.