Recent Play Details

The LA Lakers were able to avoid elimination on their home floor in Game Four of their series against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets certainly do not want to be forced into a return trip to the City of Angels for Game Six. Denver has controlled the boards winning the rebound battle in three of the four games to this point and we expect that trend to continue tonight in the Mile High City. The Lakers have dropped five straight games here including four in the playoffs dating to last season. LA has struggled from long range in this series converting just thirty percent from behind the arc. That will not get the job done against this Denver team, especially on their home court. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 13.26 points. The MM projects a point differential of +5.17 versus the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.68 with a transitional average of 43.7 and a projected conversion rate range 48.5 to 50.4. The SIM Matrix has the Denver Nuggets with a 74.28 percent advantage versus the spread in this contest. LA as a road underdog facing a team with a win percentage of .667 or higher and coming off an ATS win as an underdog are 0-7 ATS including 0-6 ATS if they also won that game SU. Play ON NBA favorites in this price range coming off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite, 60-32-2 ATS. Play ON any NBA team coming off an upset loss as a road favorite facing a team coming off a double-digit straight up victory as an underdog, 110-78 ATS (59%). We are going to lay the chalk with the home team as the boys from the Mile High City close out this series with a big win on Monday night.