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  • Event: (731) Miami Heat at (732) Boston Celtics
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: September 15, 2020 6PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Boston Celtics -1.5 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

     3% Take Boston (#732)

    I’ll give Miami all kinds of credit for getting here as easily as they have.  I’d also like to thank the Heat for making my clients & I a bunch of money in the first two rounds.  But this team is vastly overrated right now.  The Bucks were a flawed team in the bubble, still priced like the team that went 53-10 in their first 63 games, not the team that went 8-10 after the restart.  Indiana was missing their best low post player and fired their coach after the series.  Yes, Miami did good, but they’re taking a real step up in class here.

    Boston won a playoff series last year.  They reached the conference finals in 2018 and 2017.  Their young corps is more developed and more battle tested than Miami’s young guns.  Most importantly, the Celtics just beat the defending champs in a tough, defensive minded series – a major confidence boost for a team that has come up just short in recent seasons.  And make no mistake about it – the Celtics are taking a step down in defensive class compared to what they just faced; the Heat are taking a step in the opposite direction.  With a couple of extra days to breath and rest up, look for the Celtics to win Game 1 by a bucket or more.  Take the Celtics

     Line Parameter: 3% at -2 or lower, 2% at -2.5 or higher

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