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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (903) Pittsburgh Pirates at (904) Milwaukee Brewers
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: June 8, 2019 4PM EDT
    Play: 3% – (903) Pittsburgh Pirates at (904) Milwaukee Brewers Total Over 9.5 (+100)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Milwaukee – Pittsburgh OVER (#903-904)

    Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up supporting the Brewers – Pirates Over.  Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect current realities:

    “The Pirates are an Over machine right now, 12-3-1 to the Over in their last 16 ballgames.  Pittsburgh’s lineup is hot, pounding out five runs or more ten times in their last 13 contests while notching at least eight hits 12 times during that span.  The Pirates worn down bullpen, however, continues to struggle, with the injuries that have decimated their starting rotation leading to an overworked pen.”

    The Pirates beleaguered bullpen got bombed again last night, allowing the Brewers to fly Over the total all by themselves.  Today’s starter, Jordan Lyles, is coming off a season high 110 pitch effort against the Brewers in his last start.  A short turnaround second look for Milwaukee’s potent lineup is clearly problematic for the Pirates suspect hurler and the bullpen behind him is in shambles.

    Current Pirates have a solid track record against Zack Davies, hitting .298 against him in a decent 114 at bat sample size.  Davies was blasted by Cinci in his last home start; he too, is coming off his second highest pitch count of the season facing a potent Pirates lineup in a short turnaround second look.  With a 4.82 xFIP compared to his 2.20 ERA, Davies is a correction waiting to happen.  Just like last night, we can expect fireworks at Miller Park this afternoon.  Take the OVER.

    Line Parameter: 3% at 9.5 -110 or lower, 2% at 9.5 -111 or higher