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  • Event: (473) Philadelphia Eagles at (474) Dallas Cowboys
    Sport/League: NFL
    Date/Time: October 20, 2019 8PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Philadelphia Eagles 3.0 (-113)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Philadelphia (#473)

    Let me start with an excerpt from what I wrote last week while betting against the Dallas Cowboys in their SU loss at the New York Jets:

    “If Dallas is going to win by margin, it’s going to be Dak Prescott and his 84.8 QB rating who is going to have to provide much of the scoring.  Prescott has not been particularly capable of carrying this offense by himself when the running game isn’t working – hence the losses to the Saints and Packers in their last two ballgames.  And the Cowboys have major injury concerns this week.  Their offensive line – the key to the team – is riddled with injuries. Tyron Smith is doubtful, La’el Collins is doubtful and Zak Martin is questionable, dealing with a bad back.  Their playmaking LB Leighton Vander Esch has been sick all week and he’s dealing with a knee injury, and they could be down a pair of defensive linemen as well.”

    It's the exact same story this week.  Dallas is facing an elite run defense; with the Eagles holding foes to 3.3 yards per carry for the season.  That means Dak Prescott is going to have to carry this Cowboys offense.  Their offensive line is still riddled with key injuries.  Their receiving corps, too, is anything but healthy.  I’m not expecting Dallas to light up the scoreboard here!

    The Eagles have gotten CB’s Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby back on the practice field this week; a big boost for a secondary that got torched in Minnesota last Sunday.   They’ve been consistent moneymakers in this road dog role throughout the Doug Pederson era; including a SU win at Green Bay in Week 4.  Philly lost the division title to Dallas last year thanks to an 0-2 mark against the Cowboys in the regular season, an extra motivator here in a game that I expect the Eagles to win….or at least come pretty darn close!  Take the Eagles.

    Line Parameter: 3% at +3 or higher, 2% at +2.5 or lower