Tom's Sao Paulo Stakes 5%

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: New York Giants +6.0 (-110)

The betting line opened at Washington -7 but has shifted toward the New York Giants, with some sportsbooks now listing it at 5.5. I anticipate the line will settle between 5 and 5.5 by kickoff. The Commanders had a stellar 2024 season, reaching the NFC Championship Game. Their offense, led by rookie standout Jaden Daniels, remains a strength. Offseason acquisitions of Deebo Samuel and Laramie Tunsil, combined with a long-term extension for Terry McLaurin, bolster their attack. However, their defense was a weak point last season and appears largely unchanged, raising concerns about their ability to contain opponents. The Giants struggled in 2024, finishing with just three wins. However, they’ve made significant upgrades, most notably at quarterback with Russell Wilson, who brings experience and leadership. Wilson has reliable weapons and a robust running game led by Tyrone Tracy. The Giants defense is their standout unit, boasting one of the league’s top secondaries and a formidable pass rush, which could pose problems for Washington’s offense. With limited Week 1 data, historical trends provide insight. Since 2016, Week 1 underdogs have a strong 78-62 ATS (against the spread) record. Road underdogs perform even better at 52-36 ATS, while underdogs who missed the postseason the prior year are 59-45 ATS. Most compellingly, divisional underdogs in Week 1 are 31-16 ATS, making the Giants an attractive pick. Given the Commanders defensive vulnerabilities and the Giants’ defensive strengths, New York is well-positioned to keep this game close. Back the Giants as underdogs (+5.5) and consider a sprinkle on the Giants moneyline for added value, leveraging their defensive edge and favorable historical trends in this NFC East matchup. Let's cash some tickets!