Sniper Wes

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Mississippi -10.0 (-110)

(341) Ole Miss vs. (342) Kentucky

Line: Ole Miss -10 - O/U 50.5

Time: 12:30pm ET / 9:30am PT

Remember, the Rebels were stunned at home by Kentucky last season as a -17.5 favorite, their only home loss of the year. Lane Kiffin even admitted this game “haunted” him all offseason, so you can bet this one has been circled for months.

Ole Miss comes in off a win over Georgia State where they did turn it over twice and Kiffin noted the tackling needs improvement, but the bigger story is life after Jaxson Dart looks bright with Austin Simmons at quarterback. Simmons showed poise and arm talent in his debut, going 20-of-31 for 341 yards against the Panthers.

Kentucky, meanwhile, struggled in their opener against Toledo. The Wildcats managed just 24 points in a 24-16 win, with quarterback Zach Calzada completing only 10-of-23 passes for 85 yards. Dante Dowdell was the bright spot, rushing for 129 of Kentucky’s 305 total yards, but the passing game looked stagnant. The defense did its job holding Toledo to 59 rushing yards while picking up three sacks and six tackles for loss, but this is a big step up in competition.

Ole Miss reloaded on defense this offseason, and with revenge fueling them, they should be locked in on both sides of the ball. If Kentucky struggled to put away Toledo, it’s hard to see them keeping pace with the Rebels here. Look for Kiffin and company to make a statement and roll in Oxford.

Pick: Ole Miss -10

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The PLAY: Kansas +6.5 (-105)

Line: Kansas +6.5 - O/U 51

Time: 12:30pm ET / 9:30am PT

We get a border showdown here, and Kansas has some good news with Dean Miller, DJ Graham, and Bryson Canty all back in the fold. That gives the Jayhawks stability and weapons around Jalon Daniels, who remains one of the most dynamic playmakers in the Big 12.

Missouri enters red hot, riding a 7-game win streak and an incredible 17-1 straight up in their last 18 games. However, the betting angle hasn’t been as sharp: the Tigers are just 8-12 ATS as a home favorite during that span.

History between these two programs leans toward the dog—over the last 15 meetings, underdogs are 10-5 ATS with 8 outright upsets. Add to that, this is Kansas’ first regular season game vs an SEC opponent since 1988, and you can bet the Jayhawks will be up for the moment.

Jalon Daniels has the tools to extend plays, keep drives alive, and make Missouri uncomfortable. While the Tigers have been dominant in the win column, the spread tells a different story. Kansas profiles as an active underdog that should hang tough and has the upside to pull the outright upset.

Pick: Kansas +6.5

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The PLAY: Total Under 45.5 (-110)

Remember this game is in Brazil, and if you remember last season when the Packers and Eagles played in Brazil, there were all kinds of field issues and Jordan Love almost broke his leg, so there might be field issues here again. Obviously Kansas City is ticked about losing the Super Bowl, so they will have a ton of motivation, not only in this spot but all season long, and no Rashee Rice here as he is suspended six games, so this is still that same Chiefs offense that struggled vs the Eagles in the Super Bowl with an aging Travis Kelce.

Also, the Chargers lost their left tackle Rashawn Slater, but Harbaugh will still do what he does which is run, run, run the ball, and that will bleed clock and combined with a possible sloppy field, an unfamiliar enviroment to both teams, and both coached wanting to get out of dodge with no injuries, we like the under here.

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