Tom's NFL Stranger Things Spread

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Baker Mayfield To Record Over 17.5 Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield heads into Week 3 with a proven ability to use his mobility to extend plays and gain critical yards. Through the first two games of 2025, Mayfield is averaging 36 rushing yards per game on 4 carries, totaling 72 yards without a fumble or negative play. In Week 2 against Houston, he navigated a relentless pass rush (pressured on 40% of dropbacks) to rush for 33 yards on just 3 carries, including a pivotal 15-yard scramble that sustained a key drive. This pace projects to 25-40 yards against the New York Jets, comfortably exceeding the 18-yard threshold. Mayfield has surpassed 18 rushing yards in 7 of his last 10 games, including both 2025 matchups, showcasing consistency in leveraging his legs. While the Jets boast a top-5 run defense, allowing just 76.5 yards per game, they struggle to contain mobile quarterbacks. Over their last 5 games, New York has surrendered 3 quarterback rushing touchdowns, with scrambling QBs averaging 12.5 yards per carry (PFF data through Week 2, 2025). Tampa Bay's offensive scheme capitalizes on Mayfield's mobility, especially given their offensive line's pass-protection struggles, which align with the Jets' vulnerabilities against elusive signal-callers.

Take Baker Mayfield To Record Over 17.5 Rushing Yards

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The PLAY: Total Under 42.5 (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0, 1-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
Week 3
Sunday, September 21, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis Betting Trends Vikings: 6-2 ATS as home favorites since 2024
Bengals: 1-4 ATS in games without Joe Burrow since 2023

Game Preview
Initially projected as a clash of offensive firepower featuring LSU alumni Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson, this matchup has shifted dramatically due to injuries. With key absences on both sides, expect a gritty, low-scoring battle dominated by defenses and backup quarterbacks.
Recent Performances
Bengals: Narrowly escaped Jacksonville 31-27 in Week 2, sealed by a last-second touchdown.
Vikings: Fell 22-6 to Atlanta, plagued by offensive struggles and turnovers.

Injury Impact
Bengals: Joe Burrow (Grade 3 turf toe, Week 2) is sidelined for 3+ months. Jake Browning takes over, showing promise in relief (18/23, 213 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs last week). Browning previously kept Cincinnati competitive in 2023, narrowly missing the playoffs. The offense remains potent with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but the defense ranks average (16th in points allowed).

Vikings: Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy (ankle sprain, Week 2) is doubtful. McCarthy struggled (under 160 yards per start, 2 INTs last week), so veteran Carson Wentz steps in. Wentz’s 2024 Rams stint showed flashes (89.1 passer rating) but inconsistency (4 INTs in 5 games). Minnesota’s defense, elite against the pass (5th in points allowed in 2024), forced 4 turnovers in Week 2 despite the loss. Justin Jefferson could exploit Cincinnati’s secondary, though Wentz’s limited mobility caps the offense’s ceiling.

Key Matchup Analysis
Minnesota’s defense thrives on confusing quarterbacks (3rd in takeaways since 2023). Browning, pressured on 22% of dropbacks, lacks Burrow’s escapability, making him vulnerable to Flores’ aggressive scheme. Conversely, Wentz benefits from Jefferson’s elite play (4th in PFF receiving grade) and a revamped offensive line but struggles with consistency. The Vikings’ superior coaching and defensive edge (5th in points allowed) should stifle Cincinnati’s attack, while the Bengals’ middling defense may bend against Jefferson

.Prediction

This shapes up as a defensive slugfest, with both offenses hampered by backup QBs. Minnesota’s home-field advantage, Flores’ scheme, and Jefferson’s matchup against Cincinnati’s secondary tilt the scales. Expect a low-scoring, turnover-heavy game.

Best Bet: Under 42.5 points (-110)

Defenses dominate in a punter’s duel, with neither backup QB sustaining drives against stout pass defenses.

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