Tom's MLB Best Bet

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Take Quentin Johnston To Record Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

The Miami Dolphins' defense has been consistently vulnerable this season, presenting a favorable matchup for the Los Angeles Chargers' passing game. Despite the Chargers' recent two game skid, head coach Jim Harbaugh is likely to lean on quarterback Justin Herbert to exploit Miami’s defensive weaknesses through the air, especially given the team’s injury depleted running back corps. The player in question has been a reliable target, seeing at least seven targets in every game except last week, when he efficiently caught all four of his targets, reinforcing Herbert’s trust in him. He has surpassed this receiving total in four of his five games this season, and advanced models project a strong performance against Miami’s porous defense. The current line of 54.5 appears undervalued, with projections suggesting a more accurate line around 58 yards. Given the matchup and his target volume, he’s well-positioned to exceed this total.

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The PLAY: Utah State -115

#205 Utah State vs. #206 Hawaii
Date & Time: Midnight, Sunday, October 12, 2025
Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
Game Preview and Betting Analysis
Utah State Aggies (3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS)
Offense: Averaging 36.4 points per game (PPG), Utah State boasts a dynamic attack with 14 passing and 11 rushing touchdowns. They rank 60th in FBS with 168.8 rushing yards per game.
Defense: Allowing 413.0 total yards per game (114th in FBS), they’ve surrendered 11 passing and 9 rushing touchdowns. Turnovers are minimal, with only 4 giveaways.
Recent Performance: Coming off a 55-35 loss to Vanderbilt, but their ATS record is a perfect 5-0 overall (2-0 on the road).
Against Hawaii: Utah State has dominated the series, winning the last 8 meetings and covering the spread in 7 of those.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS)
Offense: Averaging 25.7 PPG (86th in FBS), with 275.5 passing yards per game (32nd nationally) but only 93.3 rushing yards per game. They’ve thrown 7 interceptions and lost 5 fumbles.
Defense: Allowing 23.5 points per game, with 368.8 total yards per game (80th in FBS).
Recent Performance: Fresh off a 44-35 upset win over Air Force, Hawaii is 3-1 ATS at home. However, penalties are a major issue, with 404 penalty yards on 45 infractions (5th-most in FBS).

Betting Insights
Line Analysis: The current line appears undervalued for Utah State, who transitioned from underdog to favorite. Their historical dominance over Hawaii (8 straight wins, 7 covers) suggests they’re being underrated.
Game Outlook: The high total points line indicates a potential shootout, but Utah State’s balanced and explosive offense (36.4 PPG) should outpace Hawaii’s less consistent attack. Hawaii’s penalty issues and turnover woes (12 total giveaways) could prove costly against a Utah State team that protects the ball well.
Prediction: Utah State’s offensive firepower and series dominance make them the likely winner, with a strong chance to cover the spread. Hawaii may struggle to keep up in a high-scoring affair.

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The PLAY: South Carolina +9.5 (-115)

South Carolina vs. LSU Analysis
Date/Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 7:45 PM EDT
Venue: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Team Records and Trends
South Carolina (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) 1-0 ATS on the road
2-1 ATS in conference play

LSU (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) 1-2 ATS at home
1-1 ATS in conference play

Game Context
Both teams are coming off a bye, which should provide a chance to regroup and get healthy. Historically, LSU has dominated this series, with South Carolina failing to secure a win since 1994. Last season’s matchup was a nail-biter, with LSU escaping Columbia in a 36-33 thriller. This time, the Gamecocks head to the intimidating environment of Death Valley, aiming to prove they can compete with the SEC’s elite.
Team Breakdown
South Carolina: The Gamecocks have shown flashes of brilliance but struggle with consistency, particularly on the road. Their offense, led by quarterback LaNorris Sellers, has underperformed relative to Heisman expectations. However, their defense is a standout, excelling at preventing first downs and forcing turnovers. Improved talent, leadership, and discipline make this a pivotal opportunity for South Carolina to demonstrate their progress.
LSU: The Tigers, quarterbacked by Garrett Nussmeier, also entered the season with Heisman hype but have failed to consistently impress. Their defense, however, is stout, allowing just 12.2 points per game. LSU’s depth and home-field advantage in Tiger Stadium remain formidable challenges for opponents.

Key Insights
Both offenses have appeared lackluster at times, but the defenses are the story here. South Carolina’s ability to disrupt drives and create turnovers pairs well against LSU’s stingy scoring defense. The bye week should help both teams address offensive inconsistencies, but this game projects as a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Betting Analysis
The betting line has shifted in South Carolina’s favor, reflecting market confidence in the Gamecocks’ ability to keep this game close. The total points line is low at 44.5, and given the defensive strengths and offensive struggles, the under is appealing. South Carolina’s ability to play clean football could make them a live underdog.

Picks South Carolina +8.5: The Gamecocks’ defense and improving discipline make them a solid bet to cover the spread.
Under 44.5: Expect a grind-it-out game with both defenses dictating the pace.

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