Tom Macrina

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Wisconsin +31.5 (-109)

**Wisconsin @ Oregon Game Analysis**

**Team Records and Betting Trends**  
- **Wisconsin (2-5, 2-5 ATS)**  
 - 1-1 ATS on the road  
 - 1-3 ATS in conference play  
- **Oregon (6-1, 5-2 ATS)**  
 - 3-1 ATS at home  
 - 2-2 ATS in conference play  

**Offensive and Defensive Breakdown**  
- **Wisconsin**  
 - Offense: Struggles significantly, averaging 13.3 points per game (PPG) overall, dropping to 12.0 PPG on the road and a dismal 5.0 PPG in conference games.  
 - Their inefficiency stems from poor performance in both rushing and passing, with a lackluster 35.2% third-down conversion rate.  
 - Defense: Average overall, with a strength in stopping the run but vulnerability to big plays through the air.  
- **Oregon**  
 - Offense: Explosive, averaging 44.1 PPG overall and an even more impressive 47.3 PPG at home.  
 - Defense: Elite, allowing just 14.4 PPG, with a well-rounded ability to shut down opponents in all facets.  

**Recent Performance Trends**  
- Wisconsin is in a rough patch, having lost their last five games, including being shut out in their last two. They also carry a 10-game losing streak against Power 4 opponents, highlighting their struggles against top-tier competition.  
- Oregon, conversely, is thriving, but they are 0-1 ATS as a 33.5-point favorite or greater this season, suggesting potential challenges in covering massive spreads.  

**Game Outlook and Betting Analysis**  
On paper, this matchup heavily favors Oregon. Their high-powered offense and stout defense should overwhelm Wisconsin’s anemic scoring output and inconsistent play. Last week, Ohio State was favored by 25.5 points against Wisconsin, and Oregon’s spread is even larger at 33.5, reflecting the perceived mismatch.  

However, this could be a buy-low opportunity for Wisconsin. The pressure is mounting on head coach Luke Fickell to turn things around, and the Badgers may find some offensive spark to avoid another shutout. Wisconsin’s run defense could also slow Oregon’s ground game, forcing the Ducks to rely more on their passing attack, where Wisconsin has shown some vulnerability but could keep the game closer than expected.  

While Oregon is the clear favorite and likely to dominate, the massive 33.5-point spread opens the door for Wisconsin to cover if they can muster even a modest offensive output. Additionally, the over on the 44.5-point total is appealing, as Oregon’s high-scoring offense should contribute significantly, and Wisconsin could add just enough points to push the total over.  

**Betting Recommendations**  
- **Wisconsin +33.5**: The spread is too large for a team that may show some fight under pressure, especially with their ability to limit Oregon’s run game.  
- **Over 44.5**: Oregon’s offense alone could approach this total, and a modest contribution from Wisconsin should seal the over.  

Let’s cash these tickets!