Nick Parsons

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Pittsburgh Penguins +136

This is a FREE PLAY on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

I think the Penguins offer great value here at home against the Oilers on Tuesday night.

Edmonton is a sub-par 7-9-3 on the road, while Pittsburgh is 6-5-5 at home.

The Oilers most recently fell 4-1 at Montreal, and with upcoming difficult games at Boston and Minnesota, I feel that Edmonton could easily be caught "looking ahead" here as well.

The Penguins don't have that luxury, though, as they enter off five straight losses. Note that four of those, though, have ended in overtime or the shootout.

Pittsburgh remains competitive, but it just hasn't had the bounces go its way of late.

I think that'll change here on Tuesday, though, finally.

The Penguins average 3.2 goals per game, while allowing 2.9, while the Oilers average 3.3 goals per game, while allowing 3.4.

With upcoming road games at Ottawa and Montreal after this, this home contest takes on added importance for the hungry Pens as well, obviously.

Tristan Jarry is expected in the net for the Oilers, and he's 10-3-1 with a 2.69 goals against, while Sergei Murashov is expected for Pittsburgh and he's 1-1-2 with a 2.52 goals against.

I'm going to classify these netminders as a "wash" for argument's sake, but feel that there are so many great motivating situational factors working in favor of Pittsburgh here, that I actually believe that the wrong team is favored in this one.

So that, in my opinion, swings the value in this one to the undervalued home underdog.

Consider PITTSBURGH on Tuesday night.

Good luck, NP

The PLAY: Total Over 42.0 (-109)

This is a FREE PLAY on the OVER.

This is a big game for both teams, and I believe it'll be a high-scoring offensive affair.

Miami comes in having won four straight, but I'll caution reading too much into its current win streak.

The Steelers are coming off a pivotal 27-22 win at Baltimore to move to 7-6 and into first place in the AFC North last weekend. Aaron Rodgers and company now control their own destiny in the division.

They're going to have to be super careful not to get caught "looking past" the Dolphins in this one as well, with a big rematch against Baltimore in Week 16, although they'll have the benefit of playing at home.

Miami is on the cusp of a wildcard spot after its four-game win streak, so Tua and company will be looking to try and pull off another upset here.

Other than the 30-13 home upset win over Buffalo in Week 10, the Dolphins have played the worst of the worst, barely holding on for the 16-13 overtime win over Washington, barely holding on for the 21-13 win over New Orleans, and then easily winning 34-10 at the Jets last weekend.

Clearly, it hasn't been Murderer's Row of defenses that Tua has had to face over the last month.

Tua had his first decent game in cold weather in his entire career last weekend, but otherwise he'd gone 0-7 for his career when the temperature was 8 degrees Celsius or colder at kickoff.

Tua didn't even do much in last week's victory over New York, going 13 of 21 for 127 yards and a TD.

The Dolphins took advantage of a terrible Jets' run defense, which could work in their favor here facing the Steelers middle of the pack run defense.

De'Von Archane had 92 yards and a touchdown for the Dolphins in the win over the Jets.

Miami averages only 21.6 points per game, which ranks 22nd, while allowing 22.8, which ranks 15th.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, averages 23.7 PPG, ranked 14th, while allowing 23.9, ranked 19th.

An injury to TJ Watt is more of a long-term detriment for the Steelers' defense, but not here in this matchup vs. Tua and the Dolphins here at home.

But more than anything, I think this Pittsburgh offense will come in with a ton of confidence and I expect Aaron Rodgers to set the tone in this game in my opinion after throwing for a season-high 284 yards last week, along with a passing touchdown (as well as running in a touchdown for the first time since 2022)

Top wide receiver DK Metcalf also had his biggest game ever as a Steeler last weekend with 148 yards on seven catches.

Pittsburgh is now a -170 favorite to win the AFC North.

Miami coach Mike McDaniel continues to be on the hot seat, and while the team has gone on a run since it fired its general manager four weeks ago, note that the Fish are still a +6,500 longshot to even make the Playoffs.

When Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin suffers his next losing season, it will also be his first, as he posted his 190th career victory last time out to move to tenth all-time in league history.

While not perfect last weekend, Rodgers and the Steelers managed a monumental victory last week, and I'm expecting them to now build off that victory here at home, but as I say, I think it'll be Pittsburgh pushing the pace in this one and Miami will have some opportunities offensively as well.

A lot on the line here for each side, but I expect a faster paced game to lead to more points, and that's what I like the OVER on MNF.

Good luck, NP