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Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: New York Jets +13.5 (-108)

New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Analysis
The Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4 SU) are riding high atop the AFC South, but this matchup against the struggling New York Jets (3-10 SU) presents a potential trap game. While the Jaguars are favored by a hefty 13.5 points at home, I believe the line is inflated, making the Jets an intriguing underdog play. Let's break it down.
Team Records and ATS Trends

Jets: 7-6 ATS overall, including 3-2 ATS on the road and a strong 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. Despite their dismal straight-up record, they've been competitive against the spread, especially lately.
Jaguars: 8-5 ATS overall, with an impressive 5-1 ATS at home and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four outings. Jacksonville has been dominant, winning four straight games, including a statement victory over the division-rival Indianapolis Colts last week.

The Jets, meanwhile, were blown out by the Miami Dolphins in their most recent game, extending their playoff drought to 15 consecutive years—the longest active streak across the four major North American sports leagues.
Injury Report

Jets: Running back Breece Hall is questionable and quarterback Tyrod Taylor is listed as out. Brady Cook will get the start, which could impact their already sputtering offense.
Jaguars: No major injuries reported, giving them a clear health advantage.

Offensive and Defensive Struggles
The Jets have been abysmal on both sides of the ball. Over their last four games, they've averaged just 15.3 points per game (PPG), highlighting their offensive woes. Defensively, they've been equally vulnerable, allowing 20 or more points in each of their last six contests.
In stark contrast, the Jaguars have been explosive, averaging 30.8 PPG over the same four-game span. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been sharp, but notably, he's never been installed as this large of a favorite in his career, which could add pressure in an unfamiliar role.
Situational Factors and Letdown Potential
Jacksonville's recent surge is undeniable, but this screams "letdown spot." Coming off an emotional high from their big win over the Colts, the Jaguars might overlook a Jets team that's been eliminated from playoff contention and has little to play for beyond pride. Adding to the lookahead factor, Jacksonville faces a tough road trip to Denver next week, followed by another divisional clash in Indianapolis—games that could demand more focus.
Despite their record, the Jets have shown some ATS heat with that 5-3 mark in their last eight. My betting model also favors New York here, projecting value on the underdog side.
Line Movement and Value
The lookahead line was Jaguars -9.5, but it opened at -8.5 and has ballooned to -13.5, likely due to Jacksonville's hot streak and New York's blowout loss. This movement feels overreactive, creating a "hold your nose" underdog opportunity. I'd advise shopping for the best number—aim for +13.5 or better if possible.
Final Pick
In a game where the spread seems too wide for a Jaguars team in potential regression mode, I'm backing the Jets +13.5. It's not pretty, but the value is there.

Let's cash some tickets!

The PLAY: New York Giants -2.5 (-112)

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants: Betting Analysis
Team Records and ATS Trends

Washington Commanders (3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS): The Commanders have struggled mightily this season, particularly on the road (1-5 ATS) and in recent games (1-7 ATS over their last 8). They've been unable to find consistency, losing their last 8 contests outright.
New York Giants (2-11 SU, 7-6 ATS): Despite a dismal straight up record, the Giants have been more reliable against the spread, especially at home (3-2 ATS). They've dropped their last 7 games but have shown flashes of competitiveness in covering lines.

Injury Report

Commanders: Key absences include quarterback Jayden Daniels (out) and tight end Zach Ertz (out). These losses severely hamper their offense, especially with Daniels sidelined again after a recent injury.
Giants: No major injuries reported, giving them a clear health edge coming off their bye week.

Recent Form and Market Movement
The betting line has shifted dramatically in favor of the Giants, moving them from underdogs to favorites. This flip is largely due to Daniels injury, which compounds Washington's woes after an embarrassing loss to Minnesota last week. The Commanders have averaged just 13 points per game over their last 3 outings and only 16.8 PPG on the road, highlighting their offensive struggles.
Meanwhile, the Giants are fresh off a bye, which should leave them healthier and more rested. Both teams rank as average offensively overall, but neither has been stout defensively. Advanced metrics slightly favor Washington's defense on paper, though the Giants have faced a tougher slate of offenses, potentially skewing the numbers.
Key Stats and Trends

Commanders' Struggles in Specific Spots: Washington is 0-8 SU in games before facing Philadelphia, 0-5 SU in the first leg of back-to-back division matchups, and now facing a team off a bye for the fourth time this season—a scenario that hasn't gone well for them.
Division Dynamics: This is an NFC East clash, with the Giants hosting and motivated to secure a win—potentially Mike Kafka's first win as head coach.
Defensive Context: While both units have underperformed, the Giants' bye could provide the extra preparation needed to exploit Washington's depleted attack.

Betting Recommendation
In a matchup between two reeling teams, the edge goes to the home side coming off rest. The Giants should capitalize on Washington's injuries and road inefficiencies to snap their skid. Look for New York to find a way to win here.
Current lines show Giants -2.5 across most books. If it creeps to -3, that's a good sign, but grab -2.5 now before any further movement. For those avoiding the spread, the moneyline at -136 offers solid value.
Always shop for the best odds—head over to Oddslogic.com to compare lines and ensure you're getting the top number available.

Let's cash some tickets!