We have been winning nonstop in the NFL, up 31 units since Week 10 and coming off another big Week 16 (+5.5u won, +9.5u estimated winnings total).
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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| NFL | (429) Chicago Bears at (430) San Francisco 49ers | 8:20pm EST - Dec 28/2025 |
The PLAY: Chicago Bears +3 (-105)
Caleb Williams and the Bears did it again in Week 16. Although they were trailing for the majority of the contest, Chicago willed itself to a victory at home against a team that has historically dominated their franchise. A late onside-kick recovery and then a timely error by the Green Bay offense, which included a failed fourth down conversion in overtime, opened the window for Williams and the offense. Eventually the Bears tallied up 400 total yards on Saturday night, largely behind the heroics of their second-year quarterback. Williams had another efficient performance, going 19-34 for 250 yards (7.4 yards per pass) and two touchdowns. He also ran three times for 30 yards, converting a few key first downs.
Chicago’s defense had its struggles, even after Jordan Love left the game (they allowed Malik Willis and the Packers to run for 190 yards), but they also made big plays when they needed to. Dennis Allen’s group prevented the Pack from scoring late, allowing just 3 points in the fourth quarter and nothing more in overtime. In one of the biggest turnaround stories this season, Chicago clinched a playoff berth in the process and now they have a firm two-game lead in the NFC North.
The 49ers won their fifth game in a row on Monday night and were completely unstoppable offensively. Some of that may be due to the current state of the banged up Colts, who are hanging on by a thread in the playoff race. Regardless, 28 first downs and 440 yards later, San Francisco remains a threat even for the NFC’s #1 seed, which was inconceivable six weeks ago. The return of Brock Purdy and the steady, disciplined nature of Robert Saleh’s defense have kept the outfit thriving, and many consider the Niners a dark-horse threat to make a deep playoff run. Contrarily, most of their wins have come against lower-tier opponents or opponents in difficult situations, as they’ve had one of the most complimentary schedules in the NFL this season. Their defense, which ranks 23rd in total EPA metrics and allowed 27 points to the Phillip Rivers’ led Colts on Monday, is still cause for concern.
This already feels like a playoff game since the team that loses will effectively be booted out of contention for the NFC’s #1 seed. Chicago has been super-consistent this season, qualifying as one of the most effective teams against the spread (10-5, 66.7%). But so has San Francisco (9-5-1 overall, 7-2-1 as a favorite). Still, this is a coin-flip game from our perspective, and Chicago’s defense is playing better than advertised right now (12th in total EPA). Chicago as a pooch is a must-bet right now.
Consultant Bio
Five years ago, right before COVID hit and forced everyone to work from home, I decided to create more content in the sports betting space. After nearly two decades of working in the federal government, I was satisfied with my security but dulled by the lack of passion I had in my 9-5 job, so I was always seeking something more. It occurred to me that, more than any other hobby, I was invested in reading/learning and consuming everything I could about sports and sports betting. Even when I was a little boy, my father brought home “pick-em sheets” for every NFL week, and I tried my hand on several occasions. I remember beating his coworkers more than once.
And even though I had been a winning bettor on my own, I never shared my style or advice. I started writing for a great site called TheOddsBreakers, which broke me onto the public scene and help earn respect from my peers (I hit 58%, 207-152 in my inaugural season as an NBA handicapper).
Then I entered the Circa Millions contest for the first time with only one entry and won 5th place overall in the 2021 NFL season (61-28-1, 68%).
Since then, I’ve written for dozens of sports betting publications and served in myriad roles with sports companies such as The33rdTeam, BetUS, and SportsWagers.ca. I also won in Circa Millions again, achieving 1st place in last year’s third quarter contest ($150k). I have my own podcast, Laying the Points with FarleyBets, which I will resume in the 2025 NFL season. All of my records and plays have been shared transparently, where I’ve accrued 113 units in the NFL and 100 units in the NBA over four seasons, and I continue to contribute my betting thoughts/picks on Substack.