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Member Notes
Matt Grissom | Grissom Bets
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| CFB | (185) Utah at (186) Wyoming | 8:00pm EDT - Sep 13/2025 |
The PLAY: Wyoming +23.5 (-109)
The Cowboys are allowing just 3.5 points per game and rank second nationally in red-zone defense, giving up touchdowns only about a third of the time opponents get inside the 20. They’ve also held teams to just over 3.2 yards per play, forcing opponents to sustain long drives instead of scoring quickly. Now, Utah brings in one of the most efficient offenses in the country, averaging over 50 points per game and leading FBS in third-down conversions at nearly 80%. Quarterback Devon Dampier has been sharp, completing close to 80% of his passes, and the Utes have looked unstoppable at times. I'm relying on the Wyoming altitude and defense to slow Utah's offense down just enough to keep the Cowboys within the number.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| CFB | (171) Florida at (172) LSU | 7:30pm EDT - Sep 13/2025 |
The PLAY: Florida +7.5 (-115)
Florida is coming off an embarrassing loss to South Florida, and head coach Billy Napier is already feeling the heat. That could spark a motivated response from the Gators. Florida’s offense has shown flashes, and LSU’s defense has been prone to breakdowns, especially against mobile quarterbacks. If the Gators can avoid early mistakes and sustain drives by leaning on the run game and create a few chunk plays here and there, I like their chances to keep this within one score.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| CFB | (165) Arkansas at (166) Mississippi | 7:00pm EDT - Sep 13/2025 |
The PLAY: Arkansas +7.5 (-135)
Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is emerging as one of the SEC’s most dangerous dual-threats. He ranks 4th nationally in total offense, leads the country in touchdowns, and is top-10 in rushing among quarterbacks. Bobby Petrino, who once coached Lamar Jackson, has even compared Green’s ability to stress defenses in similar ways. That’s a problem for Ole Miss, whose defense has been leaky against explosive plays and ranks middle of the pack in success rate allowed, meaning opponents sustain drives more often than you’d expect from a top-10 team.
Arkansas also has a physical run game that can wear down Ole Miss up front, and Green’s ability to extend plays with his legs makes them even harder to defend. Sam Pittman’s teams have pushed the Rebels to the brink in Oxford, losing 52-51 in 2021 and 27-20 in 2023, and this year’s group has the balance to finally flip the script. At +7.5, the Hogs have a clear path to cover, and if Green gets rolling and limits mistakes, an outright win isn’t out of the question.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| CFB | (159) Old Dominion at (160) Virginia Tech | 7:00pm EDT - Sep 13/2025 |
The PLAY: Old Dominion +7.0 (-110)
Old Dominion has quietly shown enough to make people pay attention. Their QB, Colton Joseph, has completed around 65% of his passes through two games for 353 yards and three touchdowns. He’s also doing damage with his legs, averaging over 10 yards per rush and already running for multiple scores.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, is 0-2 and has allowed opponents to play with pace and make long drives, especially after halftime. Their offense has looked good early but has fallen apart late (see Vanderbilt game).
Old Dominion’s offense runs a lot of inside zone, RPOs, and QB power—they’re built to limit downfield risks and control time of possession. If VT can’t force Joseph out of the pocket or make him beat them through the air, the Monarchs have a path to stay in range to win this one outright. Take the +7 with the road dog.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| CFB | (131) Georgia at (132) Tennessee | 3:30pm EDT - Sep 13/2025 |
The PLAY: Tennessee +4.5 (-127)
Tennessee enters this as a tougher test than many anticipated. Offensively they’ve been sharp: Joey Aguilar has shown good accuracy and confidence (no turnovers so far), and the Vols just dropped 72 points on ETSU. Tennessee ranks top-10 in passing offense and top-20 in rushing, which makes them dangerous in both phases. Georgia, on the other hand, remains elite on defense overall, but their offense is still finding its rhythm under new quarterback Gunner Stockton. Yards per attempt in the pass game have been middling, and the Vols will want to force Georgia off script into throwing more. Tennessee has historically struggled vs Georgia, but momentum is shifting: the line has been shrinking, sharp money is backing the Volunteers, and their balanced attack is a tough matchup for Georgia’s secondary.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| CFB | (125) Wisconsin at (126) Alabama | 12:00pm EDT - Sep 13/2025 |
The PLAY: Wisconsin +21.0 (-110)
Wisconsin may not have Alabama’s overall firepower, but they’re built in a way that can frustrate the Tide. The Badgers run the ball with physicality and lean on an offensive line that can slow the game down and shorten possessions. Alabama’s defense is elite, but Wisconsin’s ground game and ability to win time of possession help keep things manageable. Asking Alabama to win by three touchdowns against a team that wants to limit possessions is a tall order. Wisconsin should do enough to hang within the number.
Consultant Bio
Matt Grissom is the Co-Founder of College Baseball Insiders and a native Arkansan. As an avid student of the game, Matt’s passion for handicapping collegiate athletics by leveraging analytics and statistics began in 2018, back when betting lines for college baseball were scarce and often limited to postseason play. After a hot start in a small betting chatroom, where he exploited mispriced lines, Matt discovered that college baseball was a highly profitable sport to wager on due to the lack of available information. As he continued to out-research the sportsbooks, he quickly became one of the go-to handicappers in the sport.
In 2023, Matt and Quentin Mills launched College Baseball Insiders, establishing themselves as one of the premier sources for college baseball content and handicapping analysis. In the inaugural 2023 season, Matt delivered an impressive 277-205 (57%) record, +96.1 units, following it up in 2024 with a 271-217 (56%) record, +61.5 units—solidifying his reputation as one of the most reliable and profitable handicappers in the sport.
With the sport’s continued growth, so has the need for advanced statistics and insider information, such as probable pitchers and lineup changes. To stay ahead, Matt deepened his understanding of sabermetrics, becoming a data-driven handicapper even more. He co-developed the run projection algorithm featured on CollegeBaseballInsiders.com, which has been highly successful in predicting outcomes and determining betting value. Through analyzing team hitting and pitching statistics, starting pitching rotations, and key metrics like hot/cold trends and weather conditions, Matt and his team provide bettors with a critical edge over the sportsbooks.
Beyond handicapping, Matt and the CBI team deliver expert analysis through broadcasts, graphics, and other in-depth content. Whether it’s a loaded weekend slate or a midweek moonshot, bettors can rely on CBI for the insights and analysis to make the 2025 season a profitable one!