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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| NFL | (263) Tennessee Titans at (264) Houston Texans | 1:00pm EDT - Sep 28/2025 |
The PLAY: Total Under 38.5 (-110)
(263) Tennessee Titans at (264) Houston Texans
Total Under 38.5 (-110)
1:00 PM EST. I re-watched the Jaguars and Texans game, and it was even worse than I thought. Houston’s offensive line is absolutely putrid, creating a scenario where CJ Stroud is panicking on virtually every down, scrambling to find an opening quickly or the play has no shot. So far Tennessee hasn’t impressed much defensively, but they have a fantastic interior defensive line and this is a divisional game where they are as desperate as the home team. They’ve also relied on defense and hung around in many games, despite giving up chunks here and there. I’m not sure Houston is capable of explosive plays, at this point. I also don’t think I need to say much about the Houston defense against the Titans offense. The only way this goes over is if one defense creates multiple turnovers and short fields for myriad easy scores, but even then this profiles as a very slow moving, defensive battle. PS - 37 and 38 are key numbers, so we love that we're still under them.
Consultant Bio
Five years ago, right before COVID hit and forced everyone to work from home, I decided to create more content in the sports betting space. After nearly two decades of working in the federal government, I was satisfied with my security but dulled by the lack of passion I had in my 9-5 job, so I was always seeking something more. It occurred to me that, more than any other hobby, I was invested in reading/learning and consuming everything I could about sports and sports betting. Even when I was a little boy, my father brought home “pick-em sheets” for every NFL week, and I tried my hand on several occasions. I remember beating his coworkers more than once.
And even though I had been a winning bettor on my own, I never shared my style or advice. I started writing for a great site called TheOddsBreakers, which broke me onto the public scene and help earn respect from my peers (I hit 58%, 207-152 in my inaugural season as an NBA handicapper).
Then I entered the Circa Millions contest for the first time with only one entry and won 5th place overall in the 2021 NFL season (61-28-1, 68%).
Since then, I’ve written for dozens of sports betting publications and served in myriad roles with sports companies such as The33rdTeam, BetUS, and SportsWagers.ca. I also won in Circa Millions again, achieving 1st place in last year’s third quarter contest ($150k). I have my own podcast, Laying the Points with FarleyBets, which I will resume in the 2025 NFL season. All of my records and plays have been shared transparently, where I’ve accrued 113 units in the NFL and 100 units in the NBA over four seasons, and I continue to contribute my betting thoughts/picks on Substack.