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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| NFL | (473) Atlanta Falcons at (474) San Francisco 49ers | 8:20pm EDT - Oct 19/2025 |
The PLAY: Total Under 47.5 (-110)
(473) Atlanta Falcons at (474) San Francisco 49ers
Total Under 47.5 (-110)
Sunday, October 20, 8:20 PM EST. This past Monday the Falcons should have been up 28-7 in the first half, but 0.5 yards kept the home team’s score at 21 points and scoring died after that moment. Regardless, we imagine most NFL fans think of the Falcons as an elite offense at this point, especially after a national display where they ran for 210 yards and gained 443 total yards on the Bills. The reality is Atlanta is one of the lowest scoring teams in the NFL (20 per game), 27th overall. And while their ground attack is elite, like their league leading 151.2 yards per game, their passing attack is rudimentary, qualifying as average in most categories. Michael Penix Jr. has one of the lowest completion percentages in the NFL (51.82%).
On the other side Atlanta is far more capable. Through five games they’re top 10 in every major category, including a league best 253.4 opponent pass yards per game. Against opposing quarterbacks the Falcons are arguably the best defense in the NFL, permitting just 139.4 yards per game (1st) and only a 57.69% completion percentage (2nd). They can be exposed on the ground, permitting 4.8 yards per carry (28th).
Despite an incomparable amount of injuries, the 49ers still allow just 21.3 points per game (15th). In their last home game, they allowed an upstart Jaguars program to score 26 points and gain 151 rushing yards. They followed it up with a gritty performance against the Rams and a respectable showing against Baker Mayfield, who’s playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL. We trust in the 49ers coaching to put their team in the best position, and we see advantages for the defenses of both teams.
Free play: under 47.5 (-110 at BetMGM), to win 1.5 units
Consultant Bio
Five years ago, right before COVID hit and forced everyone to work from home, I decided to create more content in the sports betting space. After nearly two decades of working in the federal government, I was satisfied with my security but dulled by the lack of passion I had in my 9-5 job, so I was always seeking something more. It occurred to me that, more than any other hobby, I was invested in reading/learning and consuming everything I could about sports and sports betting. Even when I was a little boy, my father brought home “pick-em sheets” for every NFL week, and I tried my hand on several occasions. I remember beating his coworkers more than once.
And even though I had been a winning bettor on my own, I never shared my style or advice. I started writing for a great site called TheOddsBreakers, which broke me onto the public scene and help earn respect from my peers (I hit 58%, 207-152 in my inaugural season as an NBA handicapper).
Then I entered the Circa Millions contest for the first time with only one entry and won 5th place overall in the 2021 NFL season (61-28-1, 68%).
Since then, I’ve written for dozens of sports betting publications and served in myriad roles with sports companies such as The33rdTeam, BetUS, and SportsWagers.ca. I also won in Circa Millions again, achieving 1st place in last year’s third quarter contest ($150k). I have my own podcast, Laying the Points with FarleyBets, which I will resume in the 2025 NFL season. All of my records and plays have been shared transparently, where I’ve accrued 113 units in the NFL and 100 units in the NBA over four seasons, and I continue to contribute my betting thoughts/picks on Substack.