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Member Notes
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Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| NHL | (15) Vancouver Canucks at (16) Dallas Stars | 8:07pm EDT - Oct 16/2025 |
The PLAY: Total Under 5.5 (-117)
This is a FREE PLAY on the UNDER Canucks/Stars.
The Canucks are 1-2 after a 5-2 home loss to St. Louis. They opened the season with a 5-1 victory at home over Calgary, before then dropping their second game by a score of 3-1 at Edmonton.
This is the start of a five-game road trip for Vancouver, and it has another game in Chicago on Friday. While the Canucks last game went OVER the number, I'm expecting a much better defensive effort here to kick off the road trip, and facing a difficult Stars offense.
Dallas is 3-0, and it's seen all three games go OVER the number.
The last game these teams played against each other in the 2025/26 regular season was on April 8th, 2025, in this building, and Vancouver escaped with a 6-5 overtime win.
While each team has played to several higher-scoring games of late, I feel that the value has now finally swung the other way as far as the total is concerned.
While it's just the start of the season, I still think that it's worth mentioning that dating to last year, Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five against teams with losing records AND in four of its last five games as a favorite.
Vancouver star Elias Pettersson, who recently signed a huge contract, has not been living up to expectations since last season, and that's carried over into this season as well, as the Canucks continue to struggle with offensive consistency from game to game.
And I think Vancouver could have a very difficult time here against the Stars, who remain one of two unbeaten teams to open the season.
Dallas is backed by Vezina Trophy candidate Jake Oettinger, and they have a superstar forward group consisting of Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, and Jason Robertson.
Quinn Hughes leads the Canucks into Dallas, but as I've detailed, I think the Vancouver offense is going to stall once again here in this difficult road venue, as note that last year Dallas was ranked sixth in the league in goals allowed, at just 2.7 per contest.
That's how I see this Thursday night matchup unfolding, a much more defensive affair than the majority is expecting.
Consider the UNDER.
Good luck, NP
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| NHL | (71) Ottawa Senators at (72) Buffalo Sabres | 7:07pm EDT - Oct 15/2025 |
The PLAY: Total Over 6.5 (+110)
This is a FREE PLAY on the OVER Senators/Sabres.
As primarily a situational capper, I base almost all of my Over/Under picks (in every sport!) on what I perceive to be "good situations."
Those "good situations" are set up by a variety of different criteria, including the team's current form, scheduling, revenge, and other situational factors like that.
And when I'm looking at the Ottawa Senators and the Buffalo Sabres on Wednesday night a little more closely, I'm definitely expecting the puck to find the back of the net a bunch of times, and because of that, I'm recommending a second look at the OVER in this one.
The Senators have a tough home game on Thursday against Seattle, while Buffalo has a few nights off after this before a tough home game against Florida.
Ottawa enters 1-2 and Buffalo enters 0-3.
This will be a game that each team will feel it can win, and with a line like this, the oddsmakers would agree that these sides are pretty evenly matched.
Each will be aggressive here, and because of that, I look for a faster pace to lead to more shots and for more shots to lead to more goals!
The Senators exploded for a 5-4 win at Tampa, but they've been held to just three combined goals over their last two losses. Both against pretty good defensive teams, though, losing 6-2 at Florida and 4-1 at home to Nashville.
But now here facing this porous Buffalo defense, I expect this Sens' offense to light up the lamp.
It's just the start of the season, guys, but still worth mentioning that dating back to last year, the Senators have seen the total go 4-0 to the OVER vs. teams with losing records and in seven of their last nine games as a favorite.
Buffalo has faced some good teams as well, falling 4-0 at home to the Rangers, 3-1 at Boston, and 3-1 at home to Colorado.
Now desperate and facing a suspect Senators' defense, I also look for Buffalo to score at a prodigious rate in this one as well.
So in closing, in my opinion, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later!
Good luck, NP
Consultant Bio
Veteran handicapper Nick Parsons has been involved in the industry both as one of the World's leading sports prognosticating experts (in every major sport over the course of the last 20 years!), and he's also worked behind the scenes with some of the biggest companies and players in the market as well.
A "contrarian" at heart, Nick has always felt that being flexible with your approach when it comes to handicapping is the best way to secure profits over the short, mid, and long term. Parsons doesn't limit himself to any sort of bet, or style of wagering. If he sees value in a pick, whether it's an underdog or a favorite, then he plays it. His succinct and no "B.S." approach, while also always being fully accountable, is what his growing list of satisfied clients has grown to appreciate the most.
Nick's been in the trenches fighting the books every single day for the last 20 years. He's never once pretended that any part of this industry is "easy." It's not. But you can put his invaluable experience to work for you, as 2023 and 2024 have massive potential for this industry icon!