NFL Week 6 Betting Preview
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, SuperBook Sports releases their look-ahead lines for the following week, about 10-12 days before those games kick off. Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly offers his analysis of the NFL Week 6 opening lines, and what bettors should be watching for in this weekend’s games.
NFL Week 6 as of Tuesday, October 4 | Courtesy of SuperBook Sports |
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Washington Commanders -1 at Chicago Bears | o/u 40 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers | o/u 44.5 |
New Orleans Saints Pick’em vs Cincinnati Bengals | o/u 44 |
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars | o/u 44 |
Cleveland Browns -3.5 vs New England Patriots | o/u 41.5 |
Green Bay Packers -9.5 vs New York Jets | o/u 44 |
Baltimore Ravens -6 at New York Giants | o/u 43.5 |
Miami Dolphins Pick’Em vs Minnesota Vikings | o/u 46.5 |
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 at Atlanta Falcons | o/u 43 |
Los Angeles Rams -9.5 vs Carolina Panthers | o/u 42 |
Arizona Cardinals -2.5 at Seattle Seahawks | o/u 47 |
Kansas City Chiefs Pick’Em vs Buffalo Bills | o/u 53.5 |
Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 vs Dallas Cowboys | o/u 45.5 |
Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 vs Denver Broncos | o/u 47.5 |
Using NFL Look-Ahead Lines
Every week, before I look at the spreads and totals for the upcoming week, I set my own spreads and totals based on my power rankings so I can compare them to the SuperBook’s lines. This process is a great exercise for both professional and new bettors, and I recommend all NFL bettors attempt to set their own lines. Taking these steps allows me to check the strength of my power ratings, find edges, and build an understanding of how the market views each team from week to week.
After the Week 5 games are completed, I readjust my spreads and totals based on the new information from that past week, then I compare these numbers to the updated spreads and totals for that week.
Using that information, I have a picture painted of where I thought spreads and total should sit in the first place, if I believe these numbers will rise or fall, and if I have an edge over the market or if I am completely mispriced compared to the market.
NFL Week 6 Odds Analysis
Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears – Thursday Night Football
My Projections: Washington -2.5; o/u 42.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Washington -1; o/u 40
My numbers are similar to the numbers posted by SuperBook for this game, and I do not expect much change for this. I can see Washington becoming bigger favorites if they beat the Titans since I do not think the Bears stand a chance against the Vikings this week. The only way this line flips is if Washington cannot contain the Titans’ pass rush since the Bears’ one strength is their defensive line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
My Projections: Tampa Bay -6.5; o/u 41.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Tampa Bay -6.5; o/u 44.5
I see a lower total in this game than the market, and I expect this number to fall somewhere in the middle of my projection and opening. The Bucs’ offense seems to be back on track and I think Pickett will prove more effective on offense for the Steelers bringing this total closer to 42.5.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints
My Projections: Cincinnati -3; o/u 44.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Pick’Em; o/u 44
I am on point with the total, but might be overrating the Bengals in comparison to the market. The Saints’ defense is legit and should be able to affect Burrow all day long. I think the Bengals will end up opening as slight favorites after Week 5 is over, but there could certainly be value in the Saints as a home underdog regardless of who is under center for them. An Andy Dalton revenge game could be in the works.
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
My Projections: Jacksonville -3; o/u 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Indianapolis -2.5; o/u 44
Again I am spot on with my total projections, but the market seems to think Indy is in a rebound spot and won’t lose to the Jaguars twice this season. If the Jaguars handle the Texans with ease, I can see this line inching closer to PK.
Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots
My Projections: Cleveland -3; o/u 41.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Cleveland -3.5; o/u 41.5
I was spot on with both the total and the line for this matchup. I think the Browns and the Patriots are both underrated teams and this will be one of the better Week 6 matchups. I do not expect much change in these lines at all.
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
My Projections: Green Bay -10; o/u 41
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Green Bay -9.5; o/u 44
I was on point with the spread for this game, but maybe I am underrating the Jets’ offense. Breece Hall looks like the real deal and if Zack Wilson has another solid outing in Week 5, I can see the Jets being capable of more scoring. The Packers should have no trouble at all moving the football on the Jets, so I think this total will reopen closer to the market’s number and not my own projection.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
My Projections: Ravens -4; o/u 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Ravens -6; o/u 43.5
I thought the market would be more bullish on the Giants, but given their quarterback situation, this number makes sense. I can actually see the spread creeping closer to Ravens -7 if the Giants backup put up a dud against the Packers overseas. The Ravens have a tough game in Week 5 but they have shown that they are certainly a playoff team while the Giants are the worst 3-1 team in recent NFL memory.
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins
My Projections: Miami -2.5,; o/u 48
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Pick’em; o/u 46.5
Even with no Tua running the show, I still think the Dolphins are in good hands. Tua has been great this season, but Bridgewater has the same skillset and can also be effective in this offense. The Vikings are a good team, but playing in Miami is not an easy task. I think Miami ends up as slight home favorites after Week 5 is over.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
My Projections: San Francisco -6; o/u 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: San Francisco -6.5; o/u 43
I am on point with both the total and the spread in this game, and I do not expect much movement either way. The 49ers’ defense is legit and the Falcons’ offense has benefited from playing bad defenses. I think this total comes down slightly solely because the 49ers have a shot of pitching a shutout in this game.
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams
My Projections: Los Angeles -6; o/u 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Los Angeles -9.5; o/u 42
I am on-point with the total and I do not expect much movement there, but I think the market is overvaluing the Rams here. The Panthers are bad, and their offense is stagnant, but 9.5-point dogs, even on the road, is too many points. I expect this number to creep closer to LA -8 after Week 5 is completed.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
My Projections: Arizona -3.5; o/u 42.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Arizona -2.5; o/u 47
I am close on the spread here and I think the extra point to cover the field goal will show up at reopening. However, I am far off from the market’s prediction of the total for this game. I think the Seahawks’ offensive prowess is overrated and while it is not good, the Cardinals’ defense is slighlty underrated here. I expect this total to come down closer to 45 after Week 5 has been played out.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
My Projections: Pick’em; o/u 54
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Pick’em’ o/u 53.5
I am on point with both the spread and the total here, and I think this pricing is correct. Unless one of these teams put on a dud of a performance in Week 5, both of these numbers should stay put. Since they are the home team, it may creep to KC -1 or -1.5, but that is all the movement I anticipate.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
My Projections: Philadelphia -4.5; o/u 44.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Philadelphia -5.5; o/u 45.5
Given that this is a primetime game, I expect this number to end up closing closer to my projection and not what the market sees. The Eagles are certainly better than Dallas, but if Dak Prescott plays and looks good, this can be a tight game. I expect this total to dip closer to my numbers since the Dallas defense is legit and the Eagles also have one of the better defenses in the NFL.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
My Projections: Los Angeles -3.5; o/u 44.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Los Angeles -4.5; o/u 47.5
I was close on the spread here and I actually think this number will reopen to LA -3 and not closer to LA -5. The Chargers have a more difficult Week 5 matchup than some realize, so I think the market will correct itself after the game.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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