New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
Thursday night, the 8-3 Bills head to New England to take on the 6-4 Patriots in an AFC East showdown. Can the Patriots get a key upset win to keep their playoff hopes alive? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Week 13 betting pick.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Week 13 Betting Odds
Thursday, December 1 | Week 13 NFL Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | New England Patriots +4.5 vs Buffalo Bills |
Total: | o/u 43.5 Points |
Location: | Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA |
Game Time: | 8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | Prime Video |
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis
After taking a tough loss on Thanksgiving day, the Patriots are on the outside looking in at the AFC playoff picture. New England cannot afford to lose much more this season, and it is not a stretch to say this is an absolute must-win game for New England.
On the other hand, the Bills keep winning, but they have not played their best football as of late. They barely beat the Lions on Thanksgiving and they have lost two of their last four games. Buffalo is still sitting pretty, but I see why this game is priced closely.
Bills Must Get More Bullish On Offense
The Bills currently hold the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoff race, but this team has aspirations to win the AFC East. They have a number of tough games coming up, and while they have a better record than New England, this will still be a tough game.
The Bills’ offense has not been the same since Allen hurt his UCL. They still rank at the top of the NFL in many offensive metrics, but it is clear that Allen is not at 100% strength. Buffalo is 2nd in the NFL in points for and yards and 4th in net yards per attempt.
Also, the Bills’ run game has gotten going and this team is 2nd in yards per attempt on the ground with Allen increasing that average. On a per-drive basis, the Bills are 16th in time, 4th in plays, 2nd in yards, and 2nd in points.
Buffalo is great on third down but they need to improve in the red zone and limit turnovers. This Bills offense, despite how good it can be, still leaves a lot to be desired.
The Bills’ defense was the backbone of this team but due to some injuries, this unit is not in its best form. On a per-drive basis, the Bills are 31st in drive time, 30th in plays, and 19th in yards, but 10th in points.
Buffalo is okay with teams moving the ball all over the field, but they lock down in the red zone and they rank 4th in red zone defense.
This is a good strategy, but still, the Bills’ defense has not been the best right now. They need to sure up on third down in order to get Josh Allen and the offense more time.
Don’t get it twisted, the Bills are still a juggernaut, but this team needs to make slight improvements to win the AFC.
Is Jones The Answer At QB?
I was on New England against the Vikings last week, and what concerned me the most about this team was their unforced errors.
New England was penalized too many times and they allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown. This is not the norm for Belichick-led teams and it is certainly concerning considering it is Week 13.
Mac Jones has not been great this year, but neither has his play-caller. The Patriots are 18th in points for, 21st in yards, they are 11th in net yards per attempt which is solid, but they are 26th in rushing yards per attempt.
On a per-drive basis, the Patriots are 20th in time, 29th in plays, 23rd in yards and 23rd in points. This team is bad on third down and they are 2nd to last in red zone offense.
Yes, Mac Jones has not made the big strides you would like to see, but a lot of these issues have to do with the offensive scheme. Matt Patricia and the Patriots’ offensive staff is not making life easy for the sophomore signal caller.
The Patriots’ defensive numbers look amazing, but they are certainly slightly inflated. New England has feasted on bad offenses like the Colts, Jets, and Steelers, but they have been ripped apart by competent offensive units. Still, their defense is 6th in points against and 4th in yards against.
On a per-drive basis, this unit is 4th in time, 3rd in plays, 4th in yards, and 4th in points. I was a believer that these numbers were not inflated, but after seeing what the Vikings’ mediocre offense did to this team, it is hard to deny that this unit has boosted its stats against bad quarterbacks.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction
These two teams are familiar with each other as AFC opponents. Last season, these teams faced off twice and the only game the Patriots won was a run-heavy game on one of the windiest days of the year last year. Besides that, McDermott and the Bills had the Patriots’ number, especially in their blowout playoff win.
This number is creeping down to as low as Buffalo -4.5. It opened at Buffalo -5.5. I can see why sharps are on New England as Buffalo has had issues winning by margin, but now it seems too low to not back the Bills on the road in primetime.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills -4.5
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 13
Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills in Week 13 among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 13 games, including this New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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