Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots Betting Preview
Thanksgiving day, the 6-4 Patriots head to Minnesota to take on the 8-2 Vikings. Will Minnesota bounce back after a blowout loss to the Cowboys? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots Week 12 betting pick.
Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots Week 12 Betting Odds
Thursday, November 24 | Week 12 NFL Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Minnesota Vikings -3 vs New England Patriots |
Total: | o/u 42.5 Points |
Location: | U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN |
Game Time: | 8:20pm ET / 5:20pm PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | NBC |
Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots Betting Analysis
The Vikings were embarrassed at home on Sunday, and now on a short week, they host a scrappy Patriots team. New England is coming off an ugly loss last week, and while Mac Jones’ ability is still a question, their defense is not.
New England quietly sports a top-three defense in the NFL while the Vikings are one of the worst eight-win teams in recent memory. This line is close, but I do not think the game will be, and I actually think the wrong team is favored.
Vikings Average Despite 8-2 Record
Winning in the NFL is great, especially when you win close games like the Vikings do, however it is not sustainable. The whole world saw it on Sunday. The Vikings are middle of the pack in offense and defense and while they are winning games, I am bearish on their outlook for the rest of the season.
The Vikings have the 2nd best WR in the NFL and I love how often they feature him. Bill Belichick knows it also. In order for Minnesota to move the football on offense, they will have to look in a different direction.
The Vikings are 13th in points for and 18th in yards, but Cousins ranks 22nd in net yards per attempt and their ground game is 17th in yards per rush.
On a per-drive basis, the Vikings are 30th in drive time, 24th in plays, 22nd in yards, and 19th in points. This team struggles on third down and they are 14th in the red zone. These numbers do not exactly equate to an 8-2 team.
On defense, it is more of the same for the Vikings. They are below the league average in a few metrics despite winning football games.
The Vikings are near the bottom third in the NFL in pressure rate, they are last in red zone defense, and 22nd in third-down defense. On a per-drive basis, the Vikings are 18th in drive time, 23rd in plays, 27th in yards, and 21st in points. These metrics do not scream powerhouse by any means.
The Patriots Way To Win
Last week’s win against the Jets was one of the ugliest football games of this season, but a win is a win, and the Patriots won the Patriots way. Do not get it misconstrued; Bill Belichick is still the best coach in the NFL and his defense is a top 5 unit this season at the very least.
The Patriots have been stagnant on offense and Mac Jones has proven that he is replaceable. New England makes their bones on the ground as they should.
They just lost David Andrews for the season which is tough, but the Patriots should be able to persevere. This offense is not explosive as they are 20th in the NFL in points scored. Despite their propensity to lean on the ground game, New England running backs are 26th in yards per carry.
On a per-drive basis, the Patriots are 18th in drive time, 28th in plays, 26th in yards, and 24th in points. This team needs to improve on third down and in the red zone where they are 2nd to last in the NFL, but this team is not built to win solely on its offensive prowess.
Where the Patriots deserve all the credit in the world is on defense. The Patriots have had just two stinkers this season and they were both against rushing quarterbacks with unique skill sets.
Kirk Cousins is not that guy. The Patriots are 2nd in pressure rate, 2nd in sacks, and first in hurry percentage. They have allowed 2nd least amount of points and the fourth least amount of yards.
On a per-drive basis, the Patriots are 2nd in drive time, 2nd in plays, 2nd in yards, and 1st in points. New England is 9th in third-down defense and 6th in red zone defense. This unit is truly elite and New England gets the most out of its players.
Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots Prediction
When handicapping the NFL, there is so much more that goes into it than a team’s record. The Vikings, on paper, look like one of the best teams in the NFL. However, when you dive deeper into this game, the Vikings are actually worse than New England.
I expect the Patriots to suffocate Cousins and win with its defense. This unit compares similarly to Dallas, and we saw what Dallas did to Kirk and the Vikings this past Sunday.
Prediction: New England Patriots +3, Moneyline +130
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 12
Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed both games the Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots in Week 12 among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 12 games, including this Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots showdown, from your desktop or phone.
**************************************************
Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Free NFL Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!