Nevada vs New Mexico Prediction & Expert Betting Advice
Sportsmemo college basketball analyst Kyle Kargel gives his Nevada vs New Mexico college basketball prediction with two of the top Mountain West Conference teams going at it.
This Mountain West Conference bout tips off at 9:00pm ET from the Lawlor Events Center in Reno, NV.
Nevada and New Mexico have combined to go 33-7 so far this season.
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Nevada vs New Mexico Prediction : The Betting Odds
Monday, January 23 | Mountain West Conference Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Nevada Wolf Pack -3.5 vs New Mexico Lobos |
Total: | 147 Points |
Game Time: | 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT |
Arena: | Lawlor Events Center in Reno, NV (Odds Above by DraftKings) |
TV: | CBS Sports Network |
Nevada vs New Mexico Betting Analysis
With a win over New Mexico tonight, Nevada will jump up to second in the Mountain West Conference standings as both teams sit 5-2 in conference play so far this season. The Lobos head in winning 4-straight and off the heals of a tight 81-79 overtime win against Boise State.
Nevada on the other hand just got crushed by that Boise State team by 15 yet head in as short favorites to beat New Mexico tonight. Can the Wolf Pack cover as home favorites against the 18-2 Lobos? Let’s dive in.
Fatigue Factor For New Mexico?
We’ve become very familiar with this New Mexico team so far this season playing the most consistent basketball of any mid major team in the nation.
They’re led by Jamal Mashburn Jr. who just tallied 25 points on 9-21 shooting against Boise State while also going 4-7 from 3pt range too.
The seven 3pt attempts were the most he’s shot in a game since Dec 28. He played 43 minutes in that game just three days ago with senior forward Josiah Allick playing 42 minutes and grabbing a whopping 18 rebounds in their win against the Broncos.
The Lobos are going to have to be efficient again from long distance as they’re bottom 10 in the nation in 3pt attempts per game.
Could fatigue have an impact on New Mexico for this game as they play only their sixth true road game this season? This may be why the Wolf Pack are favored in this game despite New Mexico sporting much better metrics across the board.
Nevada Banks on Free Throws
The one advantage Nevada has over New Mexico is free throw shooting. They’re 8th in the nation in free throw shooting percentage and 23.8% of their total points per game come from the free throw line which is 7th most nationally.
To give you an idea of how much Nevada relies on the free throw line, in their 15-point loss to Boise State, they only went 9-13 from the stripe. When this team doesn’t make consistent trips to the free throw line, their offense goes stale.
Nevada ranks 102nd nationally in 3pt attempts per game, but the problem is, Boise State and New Mexico sport similar stout 3pt defenses with the Lobos ranking 37th in 3pt percentage allowed and the Broncos ranking 39th, and we all know how the game against the Broncos turned out for the Wolf Pack.
If Nevada wants a serious shot at winning this game, Jarod Lucas needs to have an impactful game as he only shot 5-12 with 15 points in the team’s loss against Boise State.
Nevada vs New Mexico Prediction : Take That Free Betting Pick!
New Mexico has shown me enough that not only can they cover as 3.5-point road underdogs but potentially win this game outright.
They’ve proven they can win on the road against good teams winning at San Diego State 76-67 only nine days ago. Nevada likes to force their opponents to play slow but that’ll be a problem tonight against a New Mexico team that likes to play fast.
The only worry I have about New Mexico not covering is if this game is close and Nevada is shooting a ton of free throws, but not worried enough to ride with the Lobos tonight.
Prediction: New Mexico Lobos +3.5
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