Fresno State vs San Diego State Expert Betting Advice
Sportsmemo college basketball analyst Kyle Kargel gives his Fresno State vs San Diego State college basketball prediction with San Diego State playing the first of three remaining regular season road games.
San Diego State scores over 12 ppg more on offense this season than Fresno State with them both allowing 65 ppg on defense to opponents.
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Betting Odds For Fresno State vs San Diego State
Wednesday, February 15 | Mountain West Conference Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Fresno State Bulldogs -8 vs San Diego State Aztecs |
Total: | 128.5 Points |
Game Time: | 11:00pm ET / 8:00pm PT |
Arena: | Save Mart Center in Fresno, CA (Odds Above by DraftKings) |
TV: | CBS Sports Network |
Fresno State vs San Diego State Betting Analysis
San Diego State and Fresno State will only meet only one time this season with the Aztecs heading to Fresno as 8-point favorites to win. San Diego State has covered in seven of their last eight games with six of those coming as a favorite.
The Bulldogs have only covered in two of their last five but four of those games have gone to the over. The total tonight is listed at 128 which will mean the Bulldogs are expected to score around 60 points in this one, but San Diego State’s stout defense will attempt to keep them from that number.
Aztecs Accumulate 20 Wins
The Aztecs sport the second best adjusted defensive efficiency of any Mountain West team during conference play but they do have the conferences top adjusted offensive efficiency.
They’re 8th out of 11 in adjusted tempo during conference play while ranking 2nd in effective field goal percentage allowed and 3pt field goal percentage allowed.
Guard Matt Bradley takes 30% of the team’s shots which is 74th highest percentage of any player in the nation. He was efficient in the team’s most recent game against UNLV going 6-8 from the field including 3-5 from 3pt range, a 82-71 win.
With that, the Aztecs notched 20 wins, but they need to keep it going to keep their first place standing in the Mountain West.
When team’s hit 20 wins there is a tendency for some immediate regression and this Fresno State has actually been playing alright as of late.
Fresno State Feisty as of Late
Fresno State only averages 62 ppg on the season but they’ve hit or gone over this mark in four straight games. It seems like they’re finally starting to pick up the pace winning tow of their last three.
The last time they went up strong Mountain West defense was back to back games against Boise State and Utah State scoring only 53 points in each game. In conference play the Bulldogs sport the worst adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage and 3pt shooting percentage.
They’re second to last in 2pt field goal shooting percentage. The Bulldogs are second to last in adjusted tempo setting up for a slow matchup.
Be sure to monitor the status of Isaih Moore who missed the team’s loss against Nevada with a hip injury. His status is still up in the air but he could miss this home contest against San Diego State as well.
Fresno State vs San Diego State Expert Prediction
With this game coming at Fresno State, I’m looking at the under 128 in this one as I expect them to crank up the defense on the visiting Aztecs.
The Bulldogs could be short handed and if that’s the case I would lean Aztecs -8 as well. Expect a low scoring grind-it-out win for San Diego State 64-57.
Prediction: Under 128.5 Points Scored / San Diego State -8 IF Moore Doesn’t Play
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