San Diego State vs Fresno State Predictions and Betting Preview
Sportsmemo content contributor Kyle Kargel offers his San Diego State vs Fresno State betting preview in the Mountain West Conference for Thursday, March 3. At the time of posting, the Aztecs are a 8-point home favorite against the road Bulldogs, with the total sitting at 116 points.
Check out our College Basketball Free Picks page for betting thoughts from some of the country’s top handicappers.
Thursday, March 3 | Mountain West Conference Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | San Diego State Aztecs -8 vs Fresno State Bulldogs |
Total: | 116 Points |
Game Time: | 11:00pm ET / 8:00pm PT |
Arena: | Viejas Arena in San Diego, CA |
TV: | CBS Sports Network |
San Diego State vs Fresno State Analysis
When these two teams first met 12 days ago Fresno State was only able to put up 44 points at home against a very stout San Diego State defense.
The Aztecs only put up 61 points themselves which is more than the 57 points the Bulldogs give up on average to teams.
These two teams actually hold the second and third place ranking in points per game allowed nationally which explains more why the over/under for this game is so low at 116.
Both teams are out of the running for the Mountain West Conference regular season title but both are fighting to be an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament and a win here for either would look great on their resume.
San Diego State Stomps Out Opposing Offenses
Although the Aztecs are a part of a mid-major conference, they’re a team I wouldn’t want to see come NCAA Tournament time. KenPom ranks them as the 21st best team overall in the country and rightfully so with their #1 adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation.
Even though the Aztecs only score 65 a game, they’re able to rev up the offense if needed. In three of their past five games they’ve scored 73 or more points including their most recent game where they were able to hold off Wyoming 73-66.
The Aztecs are also #1 in the country in opponent shot clock usage which makes sense. The opposing offense can’t find the quality shot they want against this defense which forces the other team to put up an ineffective shot late in the shot clock.
Senior guard Matt Bradley continues to lead the offensive charge scoring over 17 points per game. On defense, sophomore guard Lamont Butler generates two steals per game and senior forward Nathan Mensah is good for two blocks per game.
Overall, Head Coach Brian Dutcher has made a point to solidify this team’s defensive identity at just the right time.
Fresno State Fierce on Defense As Well
Mensah will have his hands full inside with player of the year candidate Orlando Robinson as he continues to hammer teams inside averaging 27 points per game in his last two games.
Robinson had trouble getting it going though the last time these two met only putting up nine points on 3-10 shooting and eight rebounds.
If the Aztecs can contain him again this time around, they shouldn’t have a problem shutting down the Bulldogs as a whole.
The Bulldogs roll-out a solid defense of their own coming in at 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and ranking in the top 100 in other key defensive statistics including effective field goal percentage against as well as both two and three point shooting percentage against.
The Aztecs may have to get it going from three though as the Bulldogs allow opponents to score 35.7% of their points from downtown which is 47th most nationally.
San Diego State vs Fresno State Prediction
If you like a defensive, slow-paced game this is the matchup for you.
Each team has virtually the same against the spread record but with this being the last home game for San Diego State I see them covering the large spread of eight and potentially reaching 70+ once again.
The question is “Can Fresno State get to 50 this time?” Only time will tell. Roll with San Diego State who are getting hot at the right time.
Prediction: San Diego State -8
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💰Alright, that’s a little more like it. Once again, apologies to those that purchased and followed the $2 Tuesday loser, but hopefully you made a good chunk back with us last night. Overall, we’ve enjoyed a fantastic NBA and NCAAB hoops season.
➡️https://t.co/SEjQO6eaRz pic.twitter.com/atPU7GksGI— GoldSheet (@thegoldsheet) March 3, 2022
San Diego State vs Fresno State GoldSheet Preview
College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Thursday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s San Diego State vs Fresno State contest.
NCAAB Odds Screen
Sportsmemo’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the college basketball point spreads, moneylines, first half lines and betting percentages for all of Thursday’s NCAAB games, including this San Diego State vs Fresno State showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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