New England Patriots vs New York Jets Betting Preview: Game Analysis
The Patriots and Jets face off on Sunday afternoon in an AFC East showdown. Will the Patriots beat the Jets as severely as they did in Week 8? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert New York Jets vs New England Patriots Week 11 betting pick.
New England Patriots vs New York Jets Betting Odds
Sunday, November 20 | Week 11 NFL Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | New England Patriots -3.5 vs New York Jets |
Total: | o/u 38 Points |
Location: | Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA |
Game Time: | 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | CBS |
New England Patriots vs New York Jets Analysis
Both teams had a bye week in Week 10, and now the Jets and the Patriots face off for the second time this season. In their first matchup, the Patriots beat the Jets 22-17 at MetLife Stadium.
The Jets are coming off a huge win against the Bills and they are looking to continue building their playoff resume. It should be a good one in Foxboro this weekend.
Jets Juggernaut Defense
The Jets are 6-3 and they have played exceptionally well this season. While this team is limited offensively, they have a great defense and they have limited turnovers and mistakes. The playoffs are in the Jets’ sights, and it starts with them winning in Foxboro on Sunday.
On offense, the Jets have done a great job minimizing Zach Wilson’s need to make decisions and relying on the ground game. However, since Breece Hall went down, it is hard to envision this team keeping up that successful formula.
For starters, the Jets’ next two running backs, Carter and Robinson, are not nearly as explosive as Hall. This creates a problem for New York because Wilson is not good. The Jets cannot rely on their second-year passer whatsoever.
Yes, he has minimized turnovers this year, but against Belichick, he should throw it as little as possible. This offense has been better than anticipated, but they win in spite of their young QB.
The Jets thrive on the defensive side of the ball. While I did not think they had just enough talent on defense just yet, I was swiftly proven wrong.
This is one of the best defenses in the NFL and they bring it every week. The Jets allow just 19.6 points per game and just 329.2 yards per game.
Their pass rush has been excellent, their linebackers have been great, and their young secondary has far exceeded expectations. This unit has the capability to change a game by forcing turnovers, and this is the reason the Jets are firmly in the AFC playoff hunt.
Patriots Love Pounding The Rock
New England has been good so far this season, but they have not been anything special. As always, this team is great on defense, but their offense is really one-dimensional. This team is more than capable of making the playoffs, but they need more from their offense.
Mac Jones had a very solid rookie year, but throughout that season, it was obvious there are limitations to his game. In year two, Jones has dealt with injuries, and teams have more of a scouting report on him, and his play has declined pretty significantly.
The Patriots’ best bet to gain yards is pounding the rock, which they do very well, but in order to consistently win in this league you need a QB who can sling it, and Jones is not that. This offensive line has also struggled mightly which has compounded the issues, but Jones needs to regain his form for this team to be a serious threat.
Where this team is great, with no surprise, is on defense. This team is 3rd in defensive DVOA and they boast one of the best defenses in the NFL.
The worst two games this defense played were against rushing QBs Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields, but any traditional pocket passer has been sucked into this team’s vortex.
Bill Belichick has had Zack Wilson’s number over the past two seasons. He has forced him into multiple turnovers every time they have played. That is the biggest edge the best coach in football can give his team.
New England Patriots vs New York Jets Prediction
In terms of coaching, it would seem obvious to just take the Patriots and not think twice. However, this spread is indicative that the Jets are the right side. The Patriots were -3 on the road in New York, but now they are just -3 at home against the same team?
Though the Pats won the first meeting, there were some questionable calls on the Jets that changed the complexion of the whole game. While I find it incredibly tough to bet against Bill Belichick with a far inferior QB, the Jets with the points is what I am looking at.
Prediction: New York Jets +3.5
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 11
Don’t just stop at this Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders betting pick! Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this clash between the New England Patriots vs New York Jets among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 11 games, including this New England Patriots vs New York Jets showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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