Washington Commanders vs New York Giants Betting Preview
Sunday night, the Washington Commanders host the New York Giants in an NFC East showdown with significant postseason implications. Will the Giants break their cold streak? Will the Commanders be flat out of a bye week? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Washington Commanders vs New York Giants betting pick!
Washington Commanders vs New York Giants Week 15 Betting Odds
Sunday, December 18 | Week 15 NFL Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Washington Commanders -4.5 vs New York Giants |
Total: | o/u 40 Points |
Location: | FedEx Field in Washington D.C. |
Game Time: | 8:20pm ET / 5:20pm PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | NBC |
Washington Commanders vs New York Giants Betting Analysis
The Washington Commanders and the New York Giants have the same record, and the winner of this matchup will be in a much better spot in the NFC playoff picture. These teams tied just two weeks ago, and this game is essentially a playoff game.
The Giants are playing their worst football of the season, while the Commanders are coming off of a bye. Washington was running hot, so there is a possibility the bye stifles their momentum. Either way, this should be another close game.
Commanding On Defense
Washington headed into their bye with a 6-1-1 record over their last eight games. The Commanders had a few key players that certainly could have used the rest, but this team had so much momentum before this week.
I am not saying this is certain to backfire on them, but the rest may not be exactly what Washington needed. Either way, we know what to expect of this Washington team, and there are a few keys for them to win this game.
The Commanders offense is limited. Washington tries to run the ball as much as possible to mask the throwing problems of Taylor Heinicke.
The opposition knows this, so Heinicke needs to keep the defense honest with a few throws down the field per game. Washington is 25th in points this season, and they are 18th in red zone offense. On a per-drive basis, Washington is 11th in time, 16th in plays, 25th in yards, and 26th in points.
This team is 27th in yards per carry and 26th in net yards per attempt. This ground-and-pound style works when their defense is playing well, and they can control the clock.
The Commanders’ defense is playing like a top-10 unit in the NFL, and they genuinely are elite. If Chase Young and Benjamin St. Juste suit up on Sunday, this unit should be even better. Washington is 4th in the NFL in pressure rate, and they do not blitz all that often.
On a per-drive basis, the Commanders are 1st in time, 1st in plays, 2nd in yards, and 7th in points. They are also 3rd on third down but 15th in the red zone. This team gets stops and gets off the field when they need to, and they also force turnovers.
In order to win this game, Washington needs to force turnovers and score touchdowns in the red zone. They would have won that game if they did the latter in their last matchup with the Giants. This offense is not scaring anybody, but they need to score when they are in advantageous positions.
Giant Falloff
The Giants are playing their worst football of the season, and it could not have come at a worse time. New York can still save the season, but they are free-falling. The Giants know the magnitude of this game, so I expect them to come out strong in this primetime matchup.
On offense, the Giants are next to nothing without a healthy Saquon. It is not their fault as they have so many injuries to their weapons, but still, it is a problem for New York.
The Giants are 27th in net yards per attempt and 2nd to last in adjusted sack rate. New York is 20th on third down but 8th in the red zone.
On a per-drive basis, this team is 12th in time, 13th in plays, 20th in yards, and 18th in points. This is not a recipe for success. If New York cannot control the ground game, they will have trouble moving the ball down the field.
The Giant’s defense overperformed for a majority of the season, but it is catching up to them now. On a per-drive basis, this defense is 13th in time, 18th in plays, 24th in yards, and 20th in points.
They are 5th in pressure rate, 7th in third-down defense, and 5th in red zone defense which is excellent and why this team can pull off wins. However, the Giants struggle to force turnovers, and they allow too many first downs.
New York can win this game, and they can undoubtedly cover, as long as they do not turnover the football and they continue to play sound defense in significant areas of the field.
Washington Commanders vs New York Giants Prediction
In a matchup of this magnitude, 4.5 points seem like too many. Yes, Washington is healthy and rested, and yes, the Giants stink right now, but this is a playoff game. It may not be the most fun game to watch, but it will be intense, and I’ll take whatever points the oddsmakers give me.
Prediction: New York Giants +4.5
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 15
Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed Washington Commanders vs New York Giants in Week 15 among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 15 games, including this Washington Commanders vs New York Giants showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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