*Updated* With the 2023 NFL season kicking off in just a few weeks, it’s time to revisit that sneaky bet, the Octopus Bet! Remember, you can get free NFL picks all year!
The exact definition of an octopus bet reads, “An octopus is when the same player who scores a touchdown also scores the ensuing two-point conversion.”
An octopus bet is one of the most popular and unique Super Bowl bets – The Super Bowl is usually the most wagered on event of the sports schedule since the legalization of sports betting across almost half of the states in the United States.
Although most of the focus is on choosing the winner and additional player props to spice up a customer’s wagers during the big event, there are an excess number of proposition wagers available that are not usually available week in and week out throughout the football season.
Aside from wagering on what color Gatorade is poured on the coach or how long the National Anthem will take to be sung, something that may catch a customer’s eye is when sportsbook operators ask if there will be an octopus during the game. Yes, an octopus.
History Of The Octopus Stat
Even if a diehard football fan who lives and breathes every snap may not know what the octopus wager market is, so do not be alarmed if this catches anyone off guard. Created in 2019 by a sportswriter, an octopus is when the same player that scores a touchdown scores the ensuing two-point conversion.
The exact definition of an octopus bet reads, “An octopus is when the same player who scores a touchdown also scores the ensuing two-point conversion.”
No, being a quarterback and throwing the ball for a TD does not count. You must be the one who secures the ball in the end zone on both plays.” Before this current NFL season began (2022-23), there have only been 169 recorded instances in NFL history. The naming of the term and the mere possibility of it is rather new, as the two-point conversion was adopted to the NFL in 1994.
How Often Does an Octopus Happen in the NFL?
To try to understand the frequency of an octopus during an NFL game, six occurred during the 2021-22 season.
They were caught by: Michael Pittman Jr., Danny Amendola, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Dalton Schultz, Mark Andrews and Quintez Cephus. Believe it or not, Andrews reeled off two octopi in the same game against the Indianapolis Colts during Week 5 of last season. The most recent octopus was accomplished by Patrick Mahomes in Week 9 of this current season.
Todd Gurley leads all players in NFL history with four octopi!
Hall of Fame wide receiver Randy Moss is second best all-time with three octopi, with over 20 different NFL players in a tie for third place with two (including Andrews).
Super Bowl Octopus Odds in 2023
This past season, the Cincinnati Bengals took on the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl, and below were the posted odds (from DraftKings) on if there will be an octopus during the game.
Yes: +1400
No: -2500
Anyone Wagering No to an Octopus?
There probably aren’t a bunch of customers rushing to wager ‘No’ for this market, so here’s the odds of an octopus happening in last year’s Super Bowl. Betting odds of +1400 imply a probability of 6.67%.
Before this current NFL season began, out of all NFL games since the two-point conversion was implemented in 1994, the odds of a game having an octopus is roughly 2.25%. Odds of -2500 for the ‘No’ market imply a probability of about 96.15%.
The probability that an octopus doesn’t occur is around 97.75%, which gives a “no” wager a roughly 1-2% betting edge, but obviously comes with a hefty odds number that is unattractive to most customers.
